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Discussion in 'Weather and Surf Forecasting' started by weathermaang, Aug 23, 2012.
so is Joyce about to vanish on us???
who knows...one day at a time....waist high sets every now and then and glassy fun this morning here.
National Hurricane Center said this about Joyce on their 11:00 a.m. discussion:
Joyce is being affected by about 20 kt of south-southeasterly shear...and it is embedded in a dry mid-level environment. These parameters are not expected to change appreciably during the next couple of days...and the prospects of regeneration and strengthening appear low at this time. The NHC official forecast holds the cyclone as a remnant low through the 5-day forecast...but it is entirely possible that the low could dissipate at any time.
Doesnt exactly sound promising.
fackk.. so much for thinkin about drivin 12 hrs south
why are the surf gods mad at us again?
well looks like we've lost Joyce.... what a b.it.ch.
Terrible forecasting SI. I think it's time to step your forecasting skills, all summer you have predicted surf 5 days out only to have it fizzle. Models, numbers, experience, knowledge, gut instinct and basic understanding of the ocean should make for better forecasting. Just using models in forecasting is lazy and misleading.
sniffer, you sniffing your own butthole? The only thing "lazy" is your dumb ass relying on a good, FREE website for all your forecasts. It's like getting mad at a fortune cookie for getting it's prediction wrong. Weather changes unpredictably so wave models change. Learn how to forecast for yourself. Plus, it's been my experience, especially this past year, that the predictions have been more accurate than ever.
Maybe I should paint something.
to be fair, he does have a point: knowledge and experience could be factored in. I may be wrong, but as I understand it, the graphic forecasts that we see on this site are sort of an ensemble of other models, right? models which are running algorithms that make assumptions based on past data and trends... and all of that is super complicated stuff which is why we leave it up to the computers to work the numbers for us... but as advanced as computers are, we have the more powerful computers just sitting here in our skulls. so there may be scenarios where the models are saying one thing but your intuition tells you another thing.. and you may end up being right some of the time! but in the long run the computer models are more accurate most of the time and that's why they are preferred in the industry over Barnacle Bill's predictions. so as frustrated as we all are that we may not get to have that tubular shack fest we were planning this week, SWELL INFO OWES YOU NOTHINGGGGG!!!!! whapow!
Is SI owner not making $$$ on this site? Don't you think he has a responsibility to make better forecasts for people helping him make cash? Plus I do not need to rely on this site for my forecasting, it's just an observation I'm making to help improve the site.
Aaaaaaannnnnddd its gone...
Ban that butt sniffer... Seriously dude? Just cause you got your hopes up your going to blame swell info... Use your own local knowledge to forecast. Once you do that spend money to make a wesbite so I can post on it complaining about how your 7 day forecast was wrong. Go be a kook on magic seaweed or something.
p.s. WHy aren't you on the NHC website complaining? Aren't they the ones that gathered the data that the forecast was based off of? Swell info is pretty damn accurate, but I RELY on eyeball and local knowledge in the end. Did you wax your board 5 days in advance or something? Weather is dynamic... get used to it.
Surfing is not a group hug. It is legitimate rape.
That go somewhere else and get FREE surf forecasts douchebag.
Pay sites had the same forecasts basically. Dry air from a TUTT did some damage to Joyce, it still could redevelop in a day or two.
But I guess its easier to ***** and complain about a tropical system not doing what people thought, that never happens.
Seriously why do you continue to come to this site if all you do is *****?
forecasting for the east coast is very tough, especially more than 2-3 days out. its not like forecasting large storms out of the SPAC or NPAC and u know swell is coming a 7-10 days ahead of time. hes pretty accurate for the central america region where i spend most of my time surfing so i have no complaints. i say keep up the good work and thanks for the free forecast site. but yea im in jersey right now for a few months and i can see why people get annoyed, which is primarily from the lack of waves
So my only days off are sunday and monday it seems like its going to be big but im worried its going to be blown out what do you guys think
you nailed it right there
wtf happened to the forecast?did joyce fizzle out?yesterday it said monday - wensday head highsurf,now it looks like ****!!
Joyce is gone....