Lets go Emily

Discussion in 'Mid Atlantic' started by Swellinfo, Aug 1, 2011.

  1. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    If MSW isnt trying to predict actual wave height, then what do they mean by "breaking wave estimate"? They are saying "6 ft. head High" for OCNJ Sunday. It sure sounds like a surf height forecast.[​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2011
  2. Chilli

    Chilli Active Member

    31
    Dec 29, 2010
    Imo I really dont think this storm is going to affect us all that much, I just hope we get a little something at lease. god knows its been long enough. On the other hand I think the OBX is going to be fireing. Swellinfo's calleding for 3 foot overhead!! Its almost enough to make me take a road trip :)
     

  3. bobbyg

    bobbyg Well-Known Member

    72
    Jul 11, 2011
    im hitting obx all weekend just in expectation. pleaseee
     
  4. cobtaco223

    cobtaco223 Well-Known Member

    123
    Dec 19, 2010
    So emily just died or something? its under waist high now
     
  5. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator Staff Member

    May 19, 2006
    based off GFS model, yes, Emily fizzles. Will be switching over to GFDL later today, which doesn't fizzle and is closest to the NHC official forecast track and the ensemble mean of all hurricane models.
     
  6. cobtaco223

    cobtaco223 Well-Known Member

    123
    Dec 19, 2010
    still keeping my hopes up. I really want this swell. I'm sure everyone else does too
     
  7. callmedaddy

    callmedaddy Active Member

    25
    Aug 2, 2011
    Hey swellinfo, Just a thought- I dont know d*ck about forecasting but I math pretty well. Ever consider interpolating between the GFS and GFDL data? That way the forecast will remain more consistent between am and pm updates. Swellinfo's own patented "algorithm".
     
  8. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator Staff Member

    May 19, 2006
    forecast updated just now with GFDL winds.
     
  9. lbsurfer

    lbsurfer Well-Known Member

    226
    Apr 20, 2009
    alright, I'm pretty confused about all of this GFL and GFDL stuff
     
  10. Muleskinner

    Muleskinner Well-Known Member

    77
    Aug 7, 2010
    All i know is it looks like Emily is going to make the cut between Guantanamo and haiti so it won't be weakened by the land mass. OBX Dawn Patrol Sunday!!

    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201105.html
     
  11. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator Staff Member

    May 19, 2006
    Yes, this will certainly help the cause, since it wont have to go over the rough terrain in the Dominican and Haiti.
     
  12. pkovo

    pkovo Well-Known Member

    593
    Jun 7, 2010
    I never saw the "breaking wave height feature" but it's pretty cool they have it...assuming it works. Just don't rely on their bar graph for that, or you'll be let down. I usually go to the "full Swell Breakdown" which gives you swell information on up to three different swells. I use that and their graphics which I think are pretty nice.

    Admittedly, I only ever check the "Casino Pier" spot, and I've found that to be accurate. So maybe other spots aren't. No idea what was going on with the Ocean City report yesterday as they dropped it to waist shortly after you pasted, but that is odd. Casino didn't have anything like that. When a hurricane is close, sometimes I'll look at the "New Jersey Hurricane" spot as well. Guesisng it has different algorythms specific to tropical conditions.

    Seems like everyone has trouble predicting the hurricane swells though. So many variables. I'm probably a minority, but I don't get too amped for hurricane swells. Usually a let down. I just find there's only a handful of spots in NJ that can handle a long period swell, and those end up being a zoo. I have a few unkown spots up my sleeve, but it's tough in the summer with guards and crowds and such.

    I'll take a mid period noreaster over a hurricane swell. The exception for me is those hurricanes that really hug the coast and bring in mid period swell (10-11 sec) at a hard SSE angle. Those are great, but not so frequent.

    I'll be happy if we get any clean swell over waist high out of this thing. I'm really itching to get out. I'll take mid period chest high with form over macking head plus closeouts any time....although macking head high with form would be nice too :)

    The only good thing about this stretch of no surf is, it's made my wait for a new custom I ordered more bearable.
     
  13. WeekendWarriorMdVaNc

    WeekendWarriorMdVaNc Well-Known Member

    54
    Jun 25, 2007
    Emily is now deceased. Lets hope for the resurrection.
     
  14. bags of jay

    bags of jay Well-Known Member

    82
    Jun 3, 2008
    dear anyone more knowledgeable than I,

    what are the chances of this thing still moving up the coast and providing some swell?

    thanks,
    bags
     
  15. Muleskinner

    Muleskinner Well-Known Member

    77
    Aug 7, 2010
    Even if it doesn't re-intensify, can't we still get swell from a low pressure system moving up the coast?? But the water is very warm so I'm hoping it will reform. Regardless i'm still dawn patrolling OBx sunday morning...I just hope I'm not still drunk...but i probably will be!!!
     
  16. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator Staff Member

    May 19, 2006
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2011
  17. scotty

    scotty Well-Known Member

    706
    Aug 26, 2008
    Anyone who seriously predicts what this storm is going to do at this point gets a virus straight to the hard drive.
     
  18. CBLACK

    CBLACK Well-Known Member

    86
    Sep 24, 2010
    ...and she's out.
     
  19. andrewk529

    andrewk529 Well-Known Member

    261
    Sep 3, 2010
    Damn, looks like Emily is a complete **** tease.
     
  20. ripthegnar

    ripthegnar Well-Known Member

    94
    Aug 24, 2010