Long Range Forecast

Discussion in 'Mid Atlantic' started by ihatelongboarders, Aug 2, 2011.

  1. ihatelongboarders

    ihatelongboarders Well-Known Member

    Dec 13, 2007
    the long range forecasts on this site are constantly wrong or not even close. how come LOLA has it figured out when you dudes are absolutely clueless? i'm going back to surfline.
     
  2. ihatelongboarders

    ihatelongboarders Well-Known Member

    Dec 13, 2007
    i know why you guys do it. you clearly get increased page views when the long range forecast looks good or the hurricane light is blinking but instead of looking for cheap page hits to boost your ad sales how bout you just cut the crap and give it to us straight. ya dig?
     

  3. Zippy

    Zippy Well-Known Member

    Nov 16, 2007
    I love when the reports are wrong.
     
  4. leethestud

    leethestud Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2010
    you guys need to back the F**k off of swellinfo's nuts. You think you can do a better job?
     
  5. Aguaholic

    Aguaholic Well-Known Member

    Oct 26, 2007
    lol....subscribed
     
  6. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    Swellinfo forecasts are based off model guidance, like all long range weather or surf forecasts are. You throw a tropical system in the mix, and ya, there are going to be some discrepancies between forecast/model updates. The track and development of Emily will highly influence any long range forecasts. People tend to forget how unreliable tropical system forecasts are.
     
  7. ripturbo

    ripturbo Well-Known Member

    303
    Apr 17, 2011
    yer dern tootn, lee.that tool should go back to surfline and leave the negative stalking to me:)......yankees suck
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2011
  8. Artie

    Artie Well-Known Member

    46
    Jan 11, 2007
    Thats amazing to me
    free, very well run website and ur *****in about it
    go back to surfline
     
  9. ihatelongboarders

    ihatelongboarders Well-Known Member

    Dec 13, 2007
    i understand the "uncertainty" of tropical systems but shouldn't you temper your forecast to reflect that rather than take the best possible outcome?

    for instance yesterday for a while the long range for monmouth county put the weekend at chest to head high over two days now it's in the waist range.

    i'm just saying instead of fudging the forecast to look the most favorable wait until you have a better idea of the system or fetch so you're not blowing smoke up my rear. more favorable forecasts boost your page views which in turn helps boost ad sales/revenue. instead of trying to make a buck, be honest. that's all.
     
  10. Sniffer

    Sniffer Well-Known Member

    Sep 20, 2010
    Awww..did ripturbo not get hugged enough growing up...:(
     
  11. MATT JOHNSON

    MATT JOHNSON Well-Known Member

    Oct 11, 2009
    How is he not honest ??? Did he take your money and rip u off ???? Last time I check the site was free to use.

    there are something that the forcast cant calculate into the forcast like bottom conditions . If alot of sand has moved around it could have made or added to a exhisting sandbar .

    Maybe you should stop depending on a site and learn about what works best at the breaks you surf at. Weather changes in a moments notice
     
  12. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    There is no choosing between optimal forecast tracks or fudging long range forecasts to make it look better. Forecasts are based off the GFS model (global forecasting system) wind forecasts, and hurricane forecasts are at times shifted to the GFDL Hurricane model wind forecast.
     
  13. beachbreak

    beachbreak Well-Known Member

    Apr 7, 2008
    don't bother,Matt,he hates longboarders.no one's stopping you from leaving.why do you care about monmouth when your profile has you bodyboarding west florida?at least go to the gulf coast forum
     
  14. ihatelongboarders

    ihatelongboarders Well-Known Member

    Dec 13, 2007
    @ matt

    long range forecast have nothing to do with bathymetric anomalies, these are forecast based on fetch patterns and weather system movement.

    @swellinfo (i think it's micah) if you're using GFS or the GFDL why don't you try switching it up. try LOLA or NOAA and see if that makes any difference.

    Just admit that positive long range forecasts and "favorable" hurricane models help boost your page views.
     
  15. Ray F.

    Ray F. Well-Known Member

    396
    Sep 13, 2009
    .....and my ignore list keeps on growing.
     
  16. ihatelongboarders

    ihatelongboarders Well-Known Member

    Dec 13, 2007
    @ beachbreak - updated the info back to jersey

    @ ray f - great input.
     
  17. beachbreak

    beachbreak Well-Known Member

    Apr 7, 2008
    why update if you're leaving and going to surfline?admit you were wrong and are still here
     
  18. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    You obviously are unaware of what you are talking about with regards to the forecast models....
     
  19. ihatelongboarders

    ihatelongboarders Well-Known Member

    Dec 13, 2007
  20. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    Swellinfo runs a wave model which uses wind input from weather models. Wind input will come from weather models, such as GFS, which is the top global forecast model (run by NCEP/NOAA), which basically every weather forecasting business will use for long range forecasts. That is the short of it. I hope to build out a tutorial section elaborating on many things, including understanding the fundamentals of weather and wave models.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2011