Major Hurricane Florence

okay buoys, read this link for the chatter about a wave or depression, or TS that may or may not cross over Florida around WPB or Melbourne, exit Tampa strengthening in the Guif and head north.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=99173&page=2&fpart=all&vc=1

This would happen over the Labor Day Weekend.

Another storm is developing but it goes out to sea.

I know you guys want waves, but many are hoping for a no storm season for a change.

 

“
A weak tropical wave currently located over the eastern Caribbean is expected to cross Cuba/Florida and enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend/early next week. While weak at present, especially as it is being badly sheared by an upper-level low, this wave could be entering a region of favorably low shear, ample humidity, and hearty atmospheric instability once over and/or to the west of Florida by early next week.

Models seem to be having a difficult time wrapping themselves around this feature. On the one hand, even a weak wave entering the above kind of environment near the climatological peak of the season is in and of itself an automatic 'must watch' situation. On the other hand, it is unclear whether there will be enough of a focusing mechanism for organization.

Regardless of NHC's TWO and does not yet have an Invest tag, but could get one by the start of next week, and the thread will be updated as warranted. ”

—flhurricane.com

 

Disturbance 1: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 pm EDT Fri Aug 31 2018 ...
Disorganized cloudiness and showers extending from Hispaniola
northeastward to the adjacent Atlantic are associated with a
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This activity
is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward enhancing the
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will prevent any development of this system during
the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less
hostile when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

 

Six is projected to be a hurricane and will curve out to sea.

The wave may nick southern tip of Florida and emerge in the warm Gulf. This bears watching by the gulf buoys.