Major Hurricane Michael

GFS shows it coming ashore western Panhandle around Oct 11, crossing over land and exiting N.C. not yet assigned an invest .
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?region=watl

NHC:

As of 8:00 am EDT Fri Oct 5 2018 ...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras
and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several
hours.

Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of
this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves
slowly northwestward.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily
to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

As of 2:00 pm EDT Fri Oct 5 2018 ...
A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeastern coast
of Honduras is drifting northwestward and producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America
east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.
Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the
system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development. A tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward
to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to
portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

As of 8:00 am EDT Sat Oct 6 2018 ...
Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras.

The associated showers and thunderstorms show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves slowly northward.

Interests in the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

From flhurricane.com:

0z Model run summary pretty wide range

0z EURO Landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane just west of Ft. Walton Beach (Santa Rosa Island), Thursday morning. Then drifts inland east toward Tallahassee (lots of rain)
0z GFS Cat 2 landfall in the big bend near Fish Creek late Wednesday night. Exits near Savannah Georgia and rides coast up through Sc/NC and out by the outer banks. (Hurricane most of the time)
0z CMC Cat 1 landfall near Grand Isle, LA Wednesday morning, then rapidly iland.
0z FV3 GFS Cat 2 landfall near Pensacola/Mobile Tuesday night. then inland.
0z German Icon Cat 2 landfall near Panama City Beach Wednesday night.
0z UKMet landfall in Big Bend near Perry, FL Cat 3 early Thursday morning.

In just now 6z GFS:
6z GFS Landfall borderline cat 3, landfall near Mexico Beach, FL Wednesday night
6z HWRF Cat 3/4 landfall near Pensacola Beach early Wednesday morning.
6z HMON Tropical Storm Landfall SE Louisiana Tuesday night.

 

2 pm update on the models, which predict TS Michael, summed up by flhurricane.com


12Z GFS Landfall cat 2 Pensacola Beach late Wednesday morning.
12Z FV3 GFS Landfall cat 2 Pensacola Beach, early Wednesday morning.
12Z CMC Landfall Cat 1 SE Louisiana Wednesday morning
12Z Icon Landfall Cat 3 Midday Wednesday near Mexico Beach, FL
12Z HWRF Cat 3 landfall near Laguna Beach/Destin, FL Wednesday morning.
12Z UKMET: Landfall Cat 3 near St. George's Island, FL late Wednesday night.

 

Flhurricane.com today at 4:30 am:


Overnight model run summary:

Official forecast is for a tropical storm based on TVCN and Ships guidence, with the caveat that it does not match the global models. In short, it's not too reliable for intensity before it gets into the Gulf. However the reasoning is solid. Track is more reasonable, but the spread in the cone is there. In short things are a bit iffy in the forecast for the Gulf before the system is in the Gulf.

“0Z GFS: Cat 2 landfall near Destin Wednesday afternoon.
0Z Euro Cat 3 landfall near Panama City Beach Early (just after midnight) Thursday morning
0Z FV3 GFS: Cat 1 landfall near Mobile Bay late Tuesday night.
0Z UKMET Cat 2 landfall near St. George's Island Wednesday night
0Z CMC, Clips Mississippi River Delta then landfall near Pascagoula, MS Wednesday morning Cat 1 hurricane.
0Z ICON, Cat 2 landfall near Panama City Beach late Wednesday afternoon.
0Z HWRF, Cat 3 landfall near Destin Late Wednesday morning.
0z HMON, Cat 1 landfall near Mobile Bay Wednesday morning.”

The NHC cone of anxiety:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085347.shtml?cone#contents

 

NHC:

Key points

1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-
threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.
Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow
any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane
warnings will likely be issued later today.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.

3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba
this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

 

The admin at flhurricane is not known for hyperbole. He wrote:

“Stupid levels of surge.. This cannot be repeated enough, the surge is likely going to be unbelievable at and east of the center. If you are told to evacuate, PLEASE do so. “

Flhurricane also summarized models:

“6z runs:

6z GFS Landfall Cat 3 near Destin midday Wednesday
6z ICON Landfall Cat 3 near Panama City Beach Wednesday evening.
6z FV3 Landfall Cat 3 near Destin Midday Wednesday
6z HWRF Landfall Cat 4 near Laguna Beach, FL Late Wednesday afternoon
6z HMON Landfall Cat 4 near Miramar Beach, FL Wednesday afternoon”

 

Flhurricane update:

GFS Cat 3 near Miramar Beach, Wednesday afternoon.
GFS Cat 3 near Destin, Wednesday afternoon
CMC Destin landfall Cat 3, Wed afternoon.
12Z Icon Cat 3 near Mexico Beach, FL Wed Afternoon