New tropical system forming

As of 1:00 pm EST Tue Nov 15 2016 ...
A large area cloudiness and thunderstorms is associated with a
broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development of this disturbance during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or over the
weekend while the low drifts generally northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

 

"It's not over until it's over, "

Matthew: 10:2016

 

"The broad low pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean, Invest 90L, appears to be consolidating today, with weak low and mid-level centers somewhat vertically aligned ...
Despite the improved organization, impediments exist and it is not clear if current trends will last, but if this persists then a tropical depression may form by tomorrow night. As of 7AM EST this morning, NHC listed 48-Hour development odds at 30% - and 80% within 5 days. "

Flhurricane.com

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad low pressure area. Upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development
over the next couple of days. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to be more conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could still form early next
week while the low moves slowly and erratically.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

 

As of 1:00 pm EST Sat Nov 19 2016 ...
A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms have been
persisting near the center of an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
suggest that the circulation of the low continues to become better
defined. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for additional development, only a small increase in the
organization of the low could result in the formation of a tropical
depression. This low is expected to move slowly and erratically
during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the extreme southwestern Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly and erratically. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

 

And this from flhurricane.com


If shear could relax a little bit more, 90L should be able to consolidate a little better - and was very close during the morning hours of Saturday Nov 19 of doing so, and of being classifiable - but then it almost fell apart by evening.

As long as the low continues to battle shear and dry air, the more possible it becomes for one of the nearby competing lows to take prominence in the region. A few model runs actually develop two tropical cyclones out of this mess over the next 24-96 hours, with some even including a Fujiwhara effect for good measure.

At least as of predawn Sunday Nov 20, it still appears as if 90L will probably continue being the primary low in the region, with moderate odds of becoming a named storm provided it remains over water.

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on the
low pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the extreme
southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined low-level
circulation.

However, satellite images indicate that the system
currently lacks sufficient organized thunderstorm activity to be
designated as a tropical cyclone.

An increase in thunderstorm
activity could result in the formation of a tropical depression at
any time within the next day or two while the system moves very
slowly. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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