Next up: Invest 92L

"INVEST 92L is presently centered near 15N 46W with movement to the west at around 20 knots, and is producing a large area of disorganized showers.

Almost having been wiped out by stifling dry, stable, dusty Saharan air and shear, Invest 92L is now in a less hostile environment for some organization, and NHC has restarted Invest tracking of this wave.

...the Saharan Air Layer is very robust throughout the central to eastern Atlantic at this time. Despite this, 92L has been able to mix out most of the dust it had been plagued by, and is actually embedded within a surge of deep atmospheric moisture.

The combination of lower shear, less dust and high Total Precipitable Water should allow for some organization over the next few days, and NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 5 days.

Several days ago most models were hot on developing this wave. At present only a few are,

but this looks like it could change when these models begin accounting for the far less hostile environment and improved structure. "Flhurricane.com

 

Too early to say on 92L . If it develops, it might stay south ...nice that you have the week off though. Storm chasing could be interesting.

 

As of 8:00 am EDT Sat Sep 3 2016 ...
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has increased
since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, and any development of this system should
be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. This
disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today
through Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

 

"
At 02/03Z Invest 92L was located near 14.2N 56.6W or about 225 miles to the east of Martinique in the Leeward Islands. The system is moving to the west to west northwest at a healthy clip of 22 knots and this motion, at a slowly decreasing forward speed, is likely for the next few days.

Winds are 30 knots with higher gusts and the pressure is 1008MB. SSTs are 30C which would favor additional development, however the system will encounter some southwesterly windshear on Tuesday in the vicinity of Hispaniola that should hinder development.

By mid-week conditions become more favorable for development if the system can remain south of the Greater Antilles."-- flhurricane.com

 

Flhurricane.com:


"12z Sept 4 Models that do anything with 92L eventually:
* GFS takes 92L or its remnant energy and spins up a coastal low/possible depression off Texas coast mid-month. (Seems reasonable and maybe even conservative)

* CMC fires up a depression just south of Jamaica this coming week and runs a hurricane into Tx/La border on Monday the 12th (CMC doing what CMC does best)

* NAVGEM runs 92L as an open wave up and over the Greater Antilles, then develops a weak depression off the Florida east coast next weekend (seems possible)

* ECMWF - The Euro model now takes 92L into Tx/La border on Wed the 14th as a low-end Trop Storm"