Why has the site been calling it like 3 feet than it is lately? It said waist to chest i went to check it its about knee high. I feel like this has been happening alot when i'm relying on the site.
I disagree. I have been disappointed by the forecasted-to-actual a lot lately. Maybe it has something to do with the season?
In defense of this site, it is REALLY hard to use mathmatical caluclations and tons of raw data from wind and Buoys etc and have a completely accurate system... I ran a site much much smaller than this, but i was the same idea. Live surf forecasting, a forum and image galleries, but it was all San Diego based. And after about 3 years, I shut it down, because the more I expanded, the less accurate my data became... The bottom line is this: Accurate forecating and reporting needs to involve actual eyes on the surf. Web cams dont even do it justice. And as data changes minute to minutes, its REALLY hard to get thousands of variables adjusted and corrected. So, for those of you who live in OC MD, jersey shore and the more populated surf town, there are daily REPORTS all over that have actual humans checking it out.... Thats why my old school hard core surf buddies are all anti webcam anti forecasting blah blah. They look at it as an art form. And they are MUCH smarted about how the surf is going to pan out than a computer ever is.... Im just saying, there is no way to get this thing perfect... Thats life.... There are 1000 spots all over the east coast and they all take different angles, tides, winds etc... so its is a HUGE generalization when you are talking about "Forecasting" Its like the famous last words of every surfline report in CA... Its goes like this... "3-4 feet", clean and fair conditions... Chest high sets are the norm, while more exposed standout spots are seeing Head High to one foot over head"... And that is the report for 80 miles of SD coastline. They dont tell you which beaches are "BETTER EXPOSED" that day or anything. They just say that if you end up at the right beach, it will be head high, and if you are at the wrong beach, its chest high... They do it every day... "Better Exposed spots"... So it leaves the locals with a game of cat and mouse with swell angles etc.... No one does it perfectly... Surfline in my neighborhood is usually spot on. Like, to a T... They were flawless like all winter long... And 2 days ago, I go to the OB pier at about 7:30am and surfline says that "The swell has dropped and we are seeing waves in the 2-3 foot range"... So, I grab my 5"11 shortboard and head down... I get there and start to paddle out, and suddenly, Im taking 5-6 foot set waves on the dome.... I had an ok session, but I needed like 2 more inches of board... And It made my day much harder than it should have been... So even when a guy stands on the beach and writes the report, they can still be wrong.... But let me tell you, 5-6 feet and 2-3 are a WORLD apart... There is no way to be accurate... Just deal with it I guess. Thats is why I live by the beach... If the report was wrong, I just drive down the coast until something looks right.
not to mention conditions can vary drastically 6 am check, flat-knee and 8 am same spot its chest-high
im gonna agree with zach. you just have to look around at different beaches and on your own beach adventure around.
I was waiting to see a post like this to see wether it was just me or not. It said head today and it was knee to waist. Not complaining, but more of wondering what has changed.
You have factor in that bottom contures are changing as wel as the amount of sand beaches are gaining and losing this time of year . I have found the spot 95% accurate but like it was said eyes on is the best if you can do it and local knowledge is key too
i've got no complaints at all w/ this site. even if it's not 100% accurate, it's still the most accurate FREE forecasting site i've found. hell, it's even more accurate than that famous (or infamous) pay-site we've all heard about. bottom line is, forecasting is a crap shoot under the best conditions. i've said it before; this is a guide...the only way to truly know what the surf is like is to get off your fat @$$ & go to the beach. a computer will never be able to duplicate your own eyes.
hahaha didnt i just call out a wankster for this type of post? go to the beach and do something called "look at the ocean!" honestly...it takes years of experience to figure out when to go. but when you get older, you stop looking; just listen, you will know when it's right. i always include my training schedule to pass by the beach. run, bike, paddle, yak, fish, row...something. a little check always keeps the peace in the mind. but i have learned to listen. the local boys start getting a little antsy when """IT'S""" close. a walk through the local super market, clear set of ears, and you know it's coming!
No site is 100% accurate. I've found its definitely smaller at my spots but thats ok. Its like having a temp gauge in your car that reads 210 when its actually only 180. No problem - you - know what it really is. On the good side most of the time its cleaner that what the site is predicting. I have to agree - eyes on is the way to go wether in person or via a cam.
That's why being a surfer and living more than 15 minutes from the beach sucks.This site is a dream compared to the past and makes it too easy for some people who would never surf unless it was laid at their feet. I grew up on the beach and moved away when I got married. I still surfed as much as I could and would try to get my lazy ass friends to get up and call me with a report but they wouldn't do it. I would jump in the car at 4am and drive 2 hours to check the surf only to find it flat or sh*t 75% of the time. I would then get in the car and drive 2 hours home. That's 4 hours for nothing, count your blessings .
oh, i do! i've been surfing so much more in the past 3 years, since i moved back to oc & am living right by the beach. & i was only living outside toms river...not really that far from the beach in geographic terms. still, it sucked. i'm very glad & very happy to be able to ride my bike to surf again.
The only thing I can say, is that I am aware that Swellinfo is not perfect... And, believe my I am working as hard as I can to make Swellinfo better and better all the time. This means major upgrades to the forecasting techniques and just improving the site in general. Gnarly, I believe you are in Monmouth County, and you were seeing an overcall on the ENE swell. This does happen in Monmouth County, where the buoys are up and similar to Swellinfo predictions, but the ENE swell doesn't make it into a lot of beaches. This is a localization problem and something I am working on improving.
You do a hell of a job, man...I love this site, I'm a little upset I can't get it on my Blackberry because I can't DL Macromedia Flash Player 8, but other than that I use this site in addition to others. The reason it's ankle slappers and it's calling for chest high is probably due to the onshore winds, so I'll just give you guys a heads up...Don't be upset if you go out Tuesday morning and it's no good or a washing machine 'cause the winds will still be on it...it's just the s we have to deal with living/surfing in the Northeast...you gotta love it! Surfing in these parts is a frustrating ordeal, but if anything, it forces us to be patient, and I think there's something to be said for the fact that 3 out of the top 15 or so surfers in the world are from FLA...we get ****ty waves majority of the time, dealing with it and adapting to it will prepare you for surf in places that get good swell consistently...that's my 2 cents.
Micah does an outstanding job on this site. He is filling a tall order, which is trying to setup a systematic calculation of MANY different variables, running them through filters, and bam, out comes a swell forecast… That is the thing. You can only set these things up based on data that you have seen in the past… IE: based on the exact same tide, exact same swell angle, wind speed and direction, then you look at the height of the bouy at the time, run a tone of if/then/else algorithms and after all that, Bam, out comes a prediction based on TONS of different things. So while 95% of the time, all of this data will add up to a proper report or prediction, there are also TONS of factors that cannot be accounted for. So, when one little thing outside of your set of variable comes into play, it can mess up the whole thing… But he is also dealing with THOUSANDS of different spots in very similar areas… So, the “forecast” for ocean city may be based on bouy data and reports and forecasts at lets say, the Inlet for instance… Or even 48th street. So, the forecast usually guides you through size information about the Inlet… But you drive up north 80 blocks and its dead flat.. I mean, he can’t go in entered data and variables for every city block on the east coast… And then after every storm, go measure to bottom contours and see if the steepness has changed… I mean just think about it…. And this is why, even the PAY sites do NOT have proper forecasting or predictions for a TON of areas that they list… Click on every spot in SC or random spots throughout the Carolinas… All you see is “Swell angle”, Bouy height and NO description… They just give you raw data and don’t physically write any kind of description, because they know damn well that no one that works for surfline is down checking some random spot on a remote island off of Hilton Head, SC… They just put the data out and make you figure it out… Its IMPOSSIBLE…. So if its is that big of a problem for anyone, you should relocate at least to the closest beach to you… Or maybe reconsider where you live in general, cause if you want accurate surf reporting and stuff, there are places all over the world that you can predict very easily. Unfortunately for all of us, the mid-atlantic is not the place that is east to predict. I have been in OC MD surfing head high barrels… gotten out, eaten a sandwich and come back to a lake… I mean, that’s life sometimes…
