"GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SOMETIME DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BAROCLINICALLY INITIATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR FLORIDA. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD...INDICATING WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENINSULA THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IT MY BE A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THE PATTERN SUFFERED BY THE SUNSHINE STATE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER TWO-THIRDS OF MAY. FOR NOW...AFTER COORDINATION WITH TPC...WE HAVE INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW DRIFTING GENERNALLY N ALONG 83W E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MUCH OF THE PERIOD." Possibly the same deal as last month when we had some pretty consistent medium period swell for a week or so??
Take a look at the Swellinfo Caribbean Wave Maps.. Just zoom out to East Coast, then move move to Caribbean... You will see some development 72+ hours out. This is based on the GFS model. The NHC forecasters aren't mentioning anything yet, so I would give it another 24 hours before thinking too much about this... Here is the Atlantic Tropical Discussion in the Swellinfo Hurricane Center: http://www.swellinfo.com/tropical/index.html?config=&forecast=tropoutlook®ion=NT&tregion=NT You get there by just clicking on Basin Outlook on the top of the page.
Yeah the gfs might be a little hopeful at this point but at least its a start. They have been forecasting the same situation for the past couple storms coming out of the Caribbean so if this storm doesnt produce anything maybe next week. Either way its june 4th already we should see some activity here soon!
All of that convection is over the Pacific Ocean... So, not going to do much in the 48-72 hour time frame, but GFS is still showing development into the Caribbean in the 5-7 day. The Caribbean is looking like all fair weather right now. Click here for the latest Caribbean Satellite loop from the Swellinfo Hurricane Center:
The NHC update CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. They seem doubtful this will organize =(
