Howdy, I know what an already dicey game it is getting a 7 day forecast out there. But, have you guys ever thought of extending it into a 10-14 day? I know its always a crap shoot, but I noticed some of the other big forecast sources are dipping their toes into the extended forecast game... Just curious.
I can already tell you that if that happens it will be green, 4-6' & offshore from Maine to Key West.
I'm curious to what the admin has to say. My thoughts...not worth it. Like you said it's a crap shoot that far out. For those of us who realize this, an extended forecast would just be a tease. Seeing a forecast for head high waves 10 days out just to watch it turn to crap would just dampen my mood. For those who don't realize a forecast is just that, a forecast, would complain. Even now with only a week forecast I try not to look more then a day or two ahead. The reality is you'll never know how the waves are till you get there and look. For those of us with a brain, it's useless For those of us who are clueless, it's unneeded hype
ground swells can be better predicted, once the disturbance has been created, it will continue to travel. surfline goes 17 days, which is crazy. EC windswell events depend on track of storm and are very hit or miss. if anyone on EC has surfline, try and pick the 17th day and notice how much it changes as you approach the day. try and do the same thing on WC and the swings may not be as drastic
Just saying, the surfline long range LOLA is pretty accurate.... And another "un-named" site offers the 14 day one, and for the past couple months, it has been pretty reliable for my current location. The 10-12 day range away doesn't seem to change that much more than a 7 day one does... Just saying.... I use the weather channel and various other waether websites, and they will go out for weeks in advance with their predictions. Its a ballsy move, but who knows? My vote, is to throw up a "ALPHA" or "BETA" test area on the back end of this site, let us all play around with it for a month, see if it's worth it or not. If we all report back with the information we are seeing in our given area, we could help Micah determine whether or not he wants to deal with the headache or not.... Then again, a better question for him would be, how much labor would go into added that much more data filtering into his current models... If its as simple as widening his variable ranges and expanding the data range using his current methods, maybe its worth it. If he would have re-tool all of the programming that he already has, it may not be worth it.... If its a reasonably simple tool, maybe it would be worth it.
I do use the 2 week forecast on surfline for trips to PR. It is good for approximately forecasting a low to move off hatteras which sends the swell down. Thats the only reason I still have surfline I think but I can see where it could be a problem for the whiners.
It is better for areas in which it takes many days for the swell to travel to the destination, because after 7 days, the weather model accuracy drops significantly. But, it is very location dependent, where areas that receive swell generated very far away will be able to use the winds from forecast day 6 to forecast the waves that reach the beach many days later. If the swell is generated at day 6, and takes 4 days to get to Southern California, then the 10 day forecast can be decent for Southern California. On the other hand, if the swell is generated on day 10 off of the East Coast and arrives in New Jersey on that same day, then the forecast accuracy will be terrible because the day 10 wind forecast will not be good.
My forecast for this wknd is 150 miles accumulated on my road bike, post-ride Bell Two Hearted Ales, ordering a coupla new boards & bit o' Elijah Craig bourbon to settle the horizon. As well as other things with the sex slaves that are unmentionables on this, the infarction forum. Keepin' it simple & preparing for swell.
