An area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within the next few days. Some slow development of this system is possible by the weekend while the low drifts northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
5 more storms projected, one more major cane. also saw September had 35 days of canes, apparently they count it till the cane ends. we got some hi angle surf in SC this week, choppy n strong winds - would love to see it clean up. water's still warm in these here parts
Disturbance 1: 40% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 2:00 pm EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 ... Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 As of 2:00 am EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 ... Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
