Super Long Range Forecast

Hey RdJ,

FYI. the only time there is a delay of posts is when you post links. I moderate all posts with links, or else tons of spam will be everywhere. The spam recently, has been pretty minimal, so maybe I can take off the moderation. But, that is the only time there is a delay.

Also, Swellinfo and the normal Wavewatch Atlantic model use winds projected by the GFS weather model.

Both the GFS and GFDL indicate a NW shift that will start over the next 24 hours:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_model.html

 

None of the dates and times in this image make sense to me...

 

Those times/dates appear to be in error.

 

You're probably better off monitoring for spam and keeping this site on point. Don't mind my complaining.

Both the GFDL and NOGAPS show potential for landfall between Georgia and NC and judging by the GFDL it could be a cat 2 when it hits! The GFS looks most favorable with the potential to give us surf well into next week. I'm guessing that once it hooks back west the models will be in better agreement.

 

agreed on both points... monitoring and model reconciliation... winds could be an issue, but there should be swell, regardless (and a crowd or two at the sheltered spots)...

 

I think those winds will partially depend on how close it gets to land. I'm guessing the further away from the coast, the better the winds will be.

 

LBAR? Who created this model? Just curious...

It seems to be the winning model right now. Shear is beating the daylights out of Invest99 at 1:30pm Wednesday....

 

It's taking it's good ol' time to form out there. Can't seem to shed that surface trough and develop around the circulation center. GFDL now shows it developing into a tropical storm and hitting NC on Sat night or Sun morning, then hooking back off the coast to reach cat 1 speed by Tues. Winds are still lingering in the 35 - 40 mph range, but as long as it has that frontal boundary it's still only sub-tropical. I think today could make or break this system.

We still have that other wave off Africa that is slowly developing. That could bring some fun for next weekend, but still way too early to tell.

 

a long time

man 3 pages of paragraph long posts about gfs ww plabs etc, updated 10 times a day we all must be desperate! I'll be floored when the waves come but for jersey it looks like another SE swell with a NE wind i swear the nasa is screwing with the weather i think last week or the one before we had NE wind hard for 3 days and got a SE swell it was all crossed up and weird, and i was out fluking in the kayak last night with a NE wind and I was drifting north?!? one or the other! it gets really annoying when its crossed up chop/swell combo unless your at a place where NE is offshore but it's better than nothing!

 

Sunday and Monday could be a bust due to hard NE winds depending on how it tracks. GFS, BAMM and LBAR models keep it offshore which is good for us and especially good for NC. I wouldn't want to be on OBX if this thing makes landfall. That front is still pulling it eastward and creating to much shear for the storm to center, but it's predicted to break away today. I think the further east the system is when the front breaks away, the less likely it will be to hit land. That GFS model is looking real good.

 

Latest satelite images look like it's starting to break away from the front. Front is moving NE while the storm is pulling SE and it appears there already may be a bit of organization around a circulation center. This could be it. Once it starts to spin and head back west we should have a better idea of how it will affect surf and if it will hit land.

 

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atldefault/index_large_animated.html

 

Gabrielle still taking her good ol' time. Less organized today? Sat image looked more organized to me. Not a good sign for the weekend.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS CENTERED NEAR 29N69W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. THE LOW HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIS LOW HIGHLY ELONGATED AND STRETCHED
NE-SW ALONG A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N78W. IR IMAGES
AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT DRY AIR TO THE
W OF THE LOW/TROUGH. THE INTERACTION WITH THIS UPPER LOW HAS
GENERALLY MADE THIS SYSTEM LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

 

Mr Swellinfo,

Swellinfo,

I think i remember you saying that the swell model can't handle hurricane or tropical winds...so should we be relying on any of the models to any extent at this point? Im trying to make the call to head to Ocean City, Md, or the OBX. If this turns out to be extratropical (a low pressure with the strongest winds further away from the center) it could turn out to be a lot like that one we got in early June, which was sick for Ocean City. Any thoughts?

 

Looking more like a cold front than a low pressure to me...
Although the visible loop ending at 18:45UTC is showing a swirl (possibly low-level based on the HDW-low wind feature in NOAA satellite imagery).

 

Bottom line on this one is that we seem to have a real problem with local winds throughout the swell event. There are a couple of spots that'll work but most won't. I'm hoping that the marine forecast changes for the better.

 

Looks like a lower level L shape to me, which could be a good sign for future development, but those upper level winds are still tearing it apart. If you stare at it long enough it even appears to have some slight westward movement which might get it away from that front and allow it to develop. If it does it likely wont have time to reach 'caine speeds before hitting the coast (NC maybe).

 

Agreed. There will likely be a small window of oportunity before and after it passes over land, but not much. I think the oportunity for favorable wind is better after it goes back out to sea.

 

Micah's model just updated with a different picture. Less than optimistic picture...I'm gonna drive myself nuts looking at this....