TeddyD's Forecast

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by TeddyD, Jul 2, 2019.

  1. TeddyD

    TeddyD Member

    17
    Feb 5, 2015
    Definitely rideable surf this weekend in the form of 2-3ft south windswell (with a tiny bit of groundswell underneath). Fish and longboards only, but it's something. Top south facing spots could see chest high sets early Sunday morning. Here's the official report I posted for heritagesurf.com:

    Unfortunately our flat spell continues this work-week but a little relief may be in sight this coming weekend. We should see south winds pick up Friday picking seas up to 2-4’. It’s not much but possible stomach high + surf on Saturday morning with light winds sounds fun to me. The forecasts are a little conflicted on the size of the swell so I will update before Friday when everything is solidified.
    TeddyD
    Water dropped back to the mid-60s but should warm back up as the week progresses. Baggies with a top or a springsuit will suffice.
     
  2. LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2009
    Thanks, brother... It was almost ridable yesterday at low. Alllllllmost.
     
    TeddyD likes this.

  3. CJsurf

    CJsurf Well-Known Member

    Apr 28, 2014

    What's your thoughts on Rodanthe Saturday-Sunday 13-14th? Was wanting to take my ripper down there for the Oneill East Coast Grom Tour Contest. I'm thinking it will be too small for the time, cost and effort to be worthwhile. I've held off registering due to the forecast.
     
  4. curl

    curl Well-Known Member

    242
    Apr 30, 2013
    10 day forecast has sub 1000 low off Haterass, The jet is forecasting weather on its stream , Tropicaltidbits has a great model fyi
     
  5. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    gfs_mslp_wind_watl_fh144-234 (1).gif yeah i saw that...it looks like the GFS is trying to spin up a tropical system and bring it up the coast and out to sea in about 10 days.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
    nopantsLance, headhigh and TeddyD like this.
  6. JayD

    JayD Well-Known Member

    Feb 6, 2012
    Dude,
    I respect your knowledge (I like to watch this stuff too) but you spoon feed these guys.

    There is a good chance that 69% of the dwellers would not have seen this...

    But, since we are exploring, do you think mid adlantic will see a bump prior to the illustrated episode? I do...and yes I’m a hypocrite!
     
    Mitchell and TeddyD like this.
  7. TeddyD

    TeddyD Member

    17
    Feb 5, 2015
    LOVE that site
     
  8. TeddyD

    TeddyD Member

    17
    Feb 5, 2015
    As of right now it's looking rideable for Saturday the 13th down there due to NE winds (possible weak low moving up) on Friday. Could see 2-3ft windswell, but some models are conflicting so too early to put a stamp on it....check back Monday
     
  9. TeddyD

    TeddyD Member

    17
    Feb 5, 2015
    already gone....bummer....but i see a potential for a Bermuda High which can sometimes produce super fun summer surf....stay tuned
     
  10. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    yeah there's a bit of a south fetch pointed at the mid atlantic for Saturday / Sunday that might build into some waist high short period south wind swell for Sunday at spots like Maryland - New Jersey that pick up steep south angled windswell.

    After that it looks like a front stalls over the southern Mid Atlantic and waist high NE wind swell fills in on Monday - Tuesday accompanied by onshore NE winds.

    and yeah like Teddy said this morning's GFS model is no longer showing the low spinning up the coast late next week. No surprise there...if every coastal low the GFS spins up 8 days out actually materialized, the mid atlantic would have had 3-4 shoulder high swells in June.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2019
    TeddyD and nopantsLance like this.
  11. JayD

    JayD Well-Known Member

    Feb 6, 2012
    Yea, the NE wind swell is what I was referring to. The steep south to angled...you guys pick that up though.

    Hopefully something will materialize. My empty light came on this week!
     
  12. SquezDogNight

    SquezDogNight Member

    7
    Jul 4, 2019
    Hardly a foam ball in sight up here

    First post.

    I took your avatar photo.

    That is all.
     
    La_Piedra likes this.
  13. Kanman

    Kanman Well-Known Member

    732
    May 5, 2014
    Question for those using windy... what swell model do you guys believe holds the most accurate forecast, GFS or European? I'm assuming the accuracy changes, based on where you are located and what type of system comes into play. But for general NJ surf forecasting, what do you guys generally go with?

    Been pretty naive to surf forecasting, so I'm trying to educate myself... pardon my ignorance.
     
  14. TeddyD

    TeddyD Member

    17
    Feb 5, 2015
    still remember that morning....last time waverly was head high and empty
     
  15. CJsurf

    CJsurf Well-Known Member

    Apr 28, 2014
    Before that spot got discovered and then made a surf beach it and Surf Road were my go to spots. Used to surf both of them empty all the time while everyone was surfing the Star Bar at 1st Street. There was one particular hurricane swell in the late 90s where Waverly was really good and it got absolutely blown up. It was over after that. There was a 5 year period in the mid 90s when basically nobody surfed there except myself and a small handful of others.
     
  16. SquezDogNight

    SquezDogNight Member

    7
    Jul 4, 2019
    It was Black Friday. Great session.
     
  17. Mr.Belmar

    Mr.Belmar Well-Known Member

    Aug 19, 2010

    I just tried to look to see what my app is set on... and couldn’t figure it out! I’m guessing gfs. What ever it is it’s accurate enough for me. But I usually use the forecast to figure which day is going to have a bump with the best wind... then check the cam or buoy for wave heights
     
    Kanman likes this.
  18. SquezDogNight

    SquezDogNight Member

    7
    Jul 4, 2019
    Ok so if I click a particular button on this one program I can make it look as if there's the possibility of groundswell developing next week. Don't anybody buy a board and f up this already shaky theory.
     
    antoine likes this.
  19. antoine

    antoine Well-Known Member

    Mar 10, 2013
    Great forecast