The depression is located near the southwestern edge of a mid-level anticyclone, giving the cyclone an initial motion of 285/8 kt. The anticyclone is expected to move westward in tandem with the depression over the next couple of days, keeping it on a general west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5, however, there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast. The GFS and GFDL show the cyclone feeling the influence of an amplifying deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic, which turns the depression northward. The ECMWF and UKMET, on the other hand, keep the ridge as the dominant influence and continue a west-northwestward motion. Due to the large spread in the guidance, the official forecast shows the cyclone slowing down considerably by days 4 and 5, and is a little west of the model consensus aids at those times.
