This Saturday in NJ

Discussion in 'Mid Atlantic' started by NJexit98, Jul 29, 2009.

  1. NJexit98

    NJexit98 Member

    6
    May 20, 2009
    I was looking at the forecast for this weekend and it says Saturday, August 1st is going to be shoulder high in the morning. What are the chances that this forecast is going to stay this way. And if it does stay this way it will probably be the best day of the season.
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2009
  2. rgnsup

    rgnsup Well-Known Member

    Jun 23, 2008
    Way to jinx it asshole! From here on out.. understand... the forecasts are pretty much inaccurate anything a day or more out.
     

  3. smack da lip whaaapaaa

    smack da lip whaaapaaa Well-Known Member

    56
    May 10, 2008
    saturday will be flat, everyone stay in bed and dont surf
     
  4. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator Staff Member

    May 19, 2006
    still a ways out especially for the quick moving S/SW swells. Keep checking in on the updates. Tomrrow looks pretty fun though...
     
  5. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    exactly...I'll take take these little bursts of S wind swell one day at a time. At least in Delaware/MD its basically all about finding a few hours with more west in the wind than south...and remember that jetties which block the SW winds, also blocking a lot of the south wind swell...7 second swell doesnt wrap into sheltered spots very well.
     
  6. Exit98

    Exit98 Well-Known Member

    553
    Aug 3, 2008
    First of all, nice screenname douche... Secondly, way to be THAT GUY that asks "how's the waves gonna be this weekend, I was lookin at the forecast blah blah blah"...
     
  7. Darealm

    Darealm Well-Known Member

    173
    Aug 17, 2007
    Two Weeks from Now

    Hey everyone. I was looking at the Atlantic models, and looks like there could be a good swell coming in two weeks. What do you think the chances are that there will be good waves?
     
  8. chrisd

    chrisd Well-Known Member

    360
    May 12, 2009
    I want to surf october 1st 2012 in lewis delaware will there be any rights to ride that day???
     
  9. rgnsup

    rgnsup Well-Known Member

    Jun 23, 2008
    Yes and most definitely YES.
     
  10. dave

    dave Well-Known Member

    418
    Dec 11, 2008
    well you have two possibilities - either it will stay that way, or it won't stay that way - one or the other. So, your chances are 50%. Would you get on a plane that had a 1-in-two chance of crashing? **** no! So, don't take any unnecesary risks - stay home Saturday. Jeez what is with these people. Then again on the flip side, how many sessions have I had in the last 5-6 years where there "wasn't supposed" to be any waves; where the 'net forecasters were calling for flatness or 1' and I was out there by myself or with a neighbor or two surfing 3-4' just about perfect? A lot, almost as many to make up for the times when the surfline and swelldude wizards get it right and there's 35-40 mostly clueless, mediocre-ly skilled never-been-seen-before heads in the water at every spot on a chest high pumping S groundswell
     
  11. stoneybaloney

    stoneybaloney Well-Known Member

    May 11, 2009
    Looks like you jinxed it! Don't you realize the ocean has internet access and checks this forum regularly. It must have logged in and seen your thread and now the forecast has crapped out. Damn it! :mad:
     
  12. oipaul

    oipaul Well-Known Member

    671
    May 23, 2006
    If I'm 100 miles from the beach and leave at 2pm traveling east at 60mph, and make two stops of 10 minutes and 14 minutes, and a swell 2000 miles off africa is traveling south eastward at a period of 12 seconds at what point saturday will I and the SE swell arrive at the same point?
     
  13. beaner

    beaner Well-Known Member

    309
    Jun 4, 2006
    Assuming East Coast the answer is never. The swell originated 2000 miles off of africa and is traveling southeast; away from the East Coast and towards the African Coast. I think you meant to say the swell is traveling northwest (which means it is originating from the southeast). If that's the case and the swell is originating 2000 miles directly west of the African Coast; just north of the Leeward Islands (the african coastline is probably 8,000 miles+ long and i am assuming the west african coast here, specifically Western Sahara).

    Assuming you are surfing in the Delmarva area the swell's point of origin is approximately 2600 nautical miles away. Now height is important here as well as swell decay should be factored in. But you only asked for when the swell would arrive, not how big.

    Let's assume a height of 15ft (buoy readings outside the storm). So we have a 15ft 12sec SE swell originating 2600 nautical miles away from Delmarva. From materials that I've read a swell travels at the speed of 1.5 knots times its period.

    Given the above: 2600/(12*1.5)=144 hours or 6 days. The swell will arrive in 6 days.

    :eek:
     
  14. wbsurfer

    wbsurfer Well-Known Member

    Mar 30, 2008
    how do you know all of that information?
     
  15. Lumpy

    Lumpy Well-Known Member

    267
    Aug 28, 2006
    Because he is the Beaner!!!
     
  16. dredg2

    dredg2 Well-Known Member

    161
    Nov 3, 2007
    Because is he constantly smoking beaners...
     
  17. Salty J

    Salty J Well-Known Member

    194
    Jun 13, 2008
    50% and no it wont.
     
  18. beaner

    beaner Well-Known Member

    309
    Jun 4, 2006
    I have no idea what that means. Is it a marijuana reference? I know this stuff because I like to read about it.

    Surf Science by Tonny Butt and Paul Russell is a good one
    Wetsand Wavecast guide by Nathan Todd Cool is a good book as well

    The stormrider guides usually have some info on forecasting. Surfline has some stuff. It's out there, just gotta find it. I'm not a guru like micah or lumpy though...(lump has yeeears of experience on me...haha)
     
  19. Jettylife521

    Jettylife521 Well-Known Member

    297
    Jul 16, 2007
    Hope Saturday holds!!! :D
     
  20. stoneybaloney

    stoneybaloney Well-Known Member

    May 11, 2009
    Did you guys see its supposed to be bicep-high and clean on Saturday??? :D