Tropical Depression Forming in next few days. Get ready

As of 2:00 pm EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 ...
A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

This disturbance is expected to move rapidly westward
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next
several days.

Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into
the Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

 

As of 2:00 am EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 ...
Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a tropical wave and a low pressure system located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph for the next several days.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development as the system,

and a tropical depression could form
while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles by midweek.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high....80 percent

 

From flhurricane.com:

"...the attention now moves to the wave in the central Atlantic being tracked as invest 97L. This system will likely have some impacts in the central to southern leeward islands mid week around Wednesday, and beyond that move into the Caribbean.

There is an 80% chance this system will develop over the next 5 days. Beyond that it it is too soon to tell, but will likely need to be watched closely by those in the Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf to see where it ultimately goes.

Any impacts to the US wouldn't be until next week (Oct 6-9), there is a good chance the system stays east, but in that case there would be more impact felt in the Caribbean and Bahamas. It's still a ways out with a undeveloped system so speculation beyond a few days is a bit counterproductive, but the system is worth watching."

 

And this :

"the place and shifted way too much between runs to be comfortable with anything. Another system that is basically "Until it develops" ignore anything beyond 4 days out on the models and wait to see if the trends iron out.

Right now I'd suspect that this system has a very slightly bit higher odds to miss the US just to the east with a potential cutoff low eroding the ridge, but would bring some impacts to the Bahamas/Caribbean. But confidence is pretty low, check back in a week if you are interested in that.

The setup is likely to cause rough surf and some erosion along the east coast of Florida, though.

The biggest difference between this and what eventually became Hermine is that this wave is further south, and likely more influenced by equatorial Kelvin waves. How far north and when it gets early on will likely impact the odds of recurve, which I thing will go down if it does stay further south.

The Windwards may get a TS out of it around Wednesday, and also Venezuela and the southern Caribbean islands near south America, as well as Jamaica needs to watch it closely.

In short, keep watching it."

 

We gotta fly Barry down here before he shoots himself....maybe a Gofundme page...

 

Flhurricane.com:

"

While the quick development and sharp hook to the right and out to sea makes it look like the models have a solid handle on 97L, there are actually several variables at play which could put the proverbial fly in the ointment at any time. As mentioned above, one of these is the potential for shear to be considerably stronger than an incipient or even fully developed tropical cyclone can deal with. Another, as can be seen in the image below, 97L is a large wave, and as such, slow to organize. In fact, a new wave "Pouch" has formed recently (P43L), leaving P39L way back in its wake. Additionally, there appear to be three vorticity lobes more or less surrounding the Pouch, but not necessarily rotating around the pouch, which suggests a level of independence that could further complicate consolidation.

Several runs of the HWRF as well as the Canadian have broken 97L into two or three tropical lows, usually with a primary getting very strong, and the others nearby, or lagging behind. This would not be impossible, but more often something (still infrequently) seen in the West Pac, from one of those truly massive tropical trofs or gyres out there. 97L is big, but not quite that big. So maybe less plausible than it would seem given several model runs advertising this outcome, but not to be written off - maybe two tropical lows, or a TC and a half would seem a more plausible scenario with this one. TBD ... still developing.

The take-away really being that while having near certain development odds, just a lot of known unknowns yet to be worked out. "

 

Disturbance 1: 70% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 pm EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 ...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure pressure located about 950 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have increased and become slightly better
organized since yesterday.

Environmental conditions remain
conducive for development,

and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

Interests in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to
tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward
Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning
late Tuesday or Wednesday.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

 

As of 2:00 am EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 ...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical
cyclone could be forming.

If this trend continues, then a tropical
depression or a tropical storm would likely form later today while
the system moves west-northwestward to westward at about 20 mph.


Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system, and watches or warnings could be required at any time.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds,
possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the
Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles
beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday.

An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent