Tropical low forming

So,back to the future:


As of 2:55 pm EDT Thu May 26 2016 ...
The low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas
has an elongated circulation, although the shower activity has
been increasing during the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for a tropical or subtropical
cyclone to form on Friday or Saturday while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United
States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend approaching, all
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate this low on
Friday afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
disturbance will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
"

 

Criticism is fine. It's the condescending attitude that went with it. See, like your criticism of me is normal criticism. It's not condescending.

 

Disturbance 1: 80% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 7:40 pm EDT Thu May 26 2016 ...
Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas has become somewhat better
organized since yesterday, and the circulation of the low has become
a little better defined. Environmental conditions are expected to
be generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form
on Friday or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Friday afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this disturbance will be issued by 8 AM EDT Friday morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

 

The buoys at flhurricane say:

"
Midday Thursday Models:

Euro has the system a bit stronger and nears Charleston, SC Sunday night into Monday.

GFS is a bit weaker than the Euro, but also gets to Charleston, SC Sunday night into Monday, and lingers.

CMC takes into Myrtle Beach, SC stronger Sunday, and keeps it moving into North Carolina.

The GFDL keeps and weak, but the HWRF in particular is very bullish with the system getting near hurricane strength before landfalling near Charleston, SC midday Sunday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...=0&ypos=456

HWRF seems to be overkill, the gulf stream itself could support it, but either side of it could not."

 

NHC puts it at 90% now. Looks definite. Not even June yet ...