Tropical storm Erika

From flhurricane.com

Ok, model runs for Erika this morning These are getting interesting. Reminder this far out, models are general guesses, we look for trends, but not necessarily the track.

GFS: (6z) Link
Friday: Weak, over northeastern Leewards
Saturday: Wave, over southeastern Bahamas
Monday: Large Wave, over Florida, enters back into Gulf
Tuseday: Organized again, Landfall over Tampa
Wed: Back over the Atlantic, going east
Fri: Loops back around, thtreatens NC, but out to sea

Euro (0z): (enough to get people worried) Link

Friday: Tropical Storm, scrapes or just north of Northeast Caribbean
Saturday: Strengthening, over Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas
Sunday: Hurricane, Over Central Bahamas
Monday: Strenghtening Hurricane Over Nassau/NW Bahamas
Tuesday: Major Hurricane: 100 Miles East of Melbourne, FL, heads slowly northeast from there
Wed-Fri: Stalls out. Major Hurricane about 200 miles of the coast of South Carolina and Florida Stays in the same general area the rest of the model run.

CMC: 6z
Through Monday: Skirts north of Caribbean islands
Tuesday: Skirting along north coast of Cuba
Mon, Aug 31st: In Gulf
Thur, Sep 3: Major Hurricane, Landfall north of Tampa

Other models like UKMet are on the north side. Even split among models, some seeing a loop and/or stall late in the run is a bit worrying as well.

Another instance where this general rule applies (at least over the next 4-5 days) weaker storm, favors more west, stronger one favors north/recurve sooner.


Also the 6Z navgem Link

Takes it up over Florida from the keys.

Many of the models are suggesting a Southeastern US impact or close to it, trends are slightly west. Most Intensity models shoot up quickly in 5 days.

Odds probably favor the Euro solution (or close to it),which is a recurve. However, the trends being more westerly because of a struggling system this morning, it is currently trending away from

 

I am getting that Hurricane Jeanne and Francis feeling from '04. Good idea to get the wasps out of the tracks. Locate the tarps. Top off the cars. Cook delicious Cuban food to incentivize the husband to put up some of the shutters.

Bahama's looks like it might get hit...

 

Here is the latest comment on flhurricane.com--

"
12Z Model runs for Erika:

GFS: Weak over NE Caribbean on Thursday
Rides along north coast of Cuba (Very weak)
Enters Gulf
Landfall near Tampa on Monday, very weak (Depression or wave)
This GFS run is very similar to the 6Z

CMC: 12Z
Thursday: South of Puerto Rico
Friday: over Hispaniola
Saturday: over Cuba
Sunday: In Gulf
Monday: Landfall near Panama City Beach (Strengthening)

Euro 12Z:
Thursday: Over Northern Leewards, weak (this is south of where the 0z run was)
Friday: Weaker, north of the Dominican Republic
Saturday: Weak, over Turks/Caicos
Sunday: Wave, Florida Straits
Monday: Wave, Southwest of Tampa
Tuesday: Restrengthening, landfall Apalachicola/Panama City Beach

Trend: Much Weaker, West into Gulf

UkMet keeps it just offshore of east Florida, as a strong cane, HWRF (did well with Danny) has a strong hurricane east of the Bahamas on Sunday (Aug 30th).

That euro change is a big red flag in that a lot of uncertainty remains in the future. (more than usual)"