Tropical Storm groundswell duration

first i read waves and beaches and now i read this i feel like i need a new screen name. maybe it should be southshortperiodwindswellsucks or just upwellingsucks

edit check it out:

 

Loving this track! Big Bertha's coming!-Wife of Ernesto!

 

it's a really small storm, but the track is looking really good right now. The big variable right now is the wind shear environment, and that is what most hurricane forecasters are having the toughest time with right now - determining how much the wind shear will influence Bertha over the next several days.

In any case, if the track stays true, and we see a hurricane strength storm, then we should see some fun waves.

 

with bertha's track continuing in good form, would you expect to see good surf in the obx region around friday of this week or will it be much longer????

 

Yes. Look for swell to creep up for the OBX Thursday and into Friday, and likely hold into the weekend. Winds will be a big factor.

 

Looks like onshore winds for now with temps in very high 80's. That better change!

 

If

if this stays as projeted what kind of surf could we be expecting....chest...head...overhead????

 

What's the probability of a system getting locked in so we have a day (or so) of offshore winds to clean up after the build when/if Bertha passes??

I have visions of hideous onshore slop when I'm craving glassy bombs.

 

Another formula to use is H=V(d+p)/Gs(w) where H is the swell height and Gs is the projected ground swell hieght this quartic equation works for most hurricanes and tropical depressions. D is the distance from land and W is the wind speed in kilometers per hour. P is the period of swell. I used this equation and plugged in all the numbers for T.D. Micah and it looks like we can look for 125 foot waves around 20 seconds. Depending on tides and wind, actuall wave faces could could grow exponentially to around 200-250 feet! so it wont be to big, it might be big enough for short board but idk? But DEfinitely good beginner waves fo sho?


-Do WorK

 

Bertha news update:
http://www.swellinfo.com/surfnews/hurricane-bertha-2008.html

 

I'm keeping my fingers crossed

 

A week or more...

 

i agree. thursday through sunday is when we'll see some bertha energy.

 

Why is the damn thing named Bertha again? I know there was one named that before not too long ago. But seriously like, who really knows a Bertha? I mean theres hundreds of other chick names that begins with B. Who picks these damn things?

 

the storm names are cycled every 6 years - unless they retire a name, due to extreme devastation.

 

theres a hurricane that will make solid surf with no devastation and ur complaining?!? god if u are reading this i love the name bertha. im thinking it will make a great name for my firstborn

 

I hope its a girl.

 

When I think of a girl with the name Bertha, I'm picturing a fat, ugly, hag, and usually running the other direction. Not a name I would choose for my first born, however, if she brings us some half descent surf, I don't care what her name is................

 

howabout bernesto if its a boy