Tropical system forming Florida East Coast

Guys, I am going to go out on a limb here. This morning went outside for a swim before work and it sure seemed tropical, big 40 mph gust, downpours. Looked at the radar and saw what looked like a center of circulation forming over Florida from the invest on its east coast,

After work, drove through torrential storms that looked like a tropical depression. Swales on US 1 were flooding the lane in some parts.

Now we see this from NHC:

"As of 2:00 pm EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 ...

Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that
an area of low pressure is located just inland near Daytona Beach,
Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along or just
offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast.

This system is
very close to having the organization required of

a tropical
cyclone,

and advisories could be initiated later this afternoon.

The low is expected to move north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
today, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds will continue over
portions of the northeast Florida coast today, and heavy rains will
continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and
tonight. Please consult your local National Weather Service office
for additional information on this system, including possible
warnings.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium..40 percent

Now, I know I had predicted a few months ago , in jest , that there would be a hurricane forming off Florida on Sept 14 and moving up the east coast . ...it will be amazing if it comes true.

Forecaster Betty

 

"Less than 2% of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones become named over land, and Invest 93L went strait to Tropical Storm Julia with the 11PM Advisory last night. There have been other situations where I personally felt a given Invest met the threshold for TD or TS while inland but did not get the official upgrade from NHC, and was maybe still a little surprised to see them do so with 93L, but by 11PM any reasonable excuse to hold out from calling it had clearly been exhausted. On the other hand, naming an inland developing Tropical Cyclone should indeed be done with due diligence. This is a rare event, but as an aside and a bit of a digression, climate models have been advertising that we may see a greater chance of this type of thing happening due to increased SSTs, higher Total Precipitable Water values, also favoring more numerous "brown oceans" (large areas of saturated or marshy ground).

Officially, Julia is forecast to hug the coast of South Carolina until becoming a remnant by the weekend, but the spread is large enough to consider the other possibilities. Some of these include:

Parking just far enough inland to maintain as a "brown ocean" tropical cyclone for several days, with potential for the deepest convection to blow up over land, instead of the Gulf Stream, including a possibility of 'core rain' events, where especially overnight very heavy thunderstorms become concentrated within the center. These inland risks would pose a dire flood threat. Some model runs have suggested this.

Pulling more out over water and intensifying, before coming back inland as a stronger tropical storm a day or two later. Some model runs have suggested this.

Pulling offshore and just meandering over water until steering currents eject a stronger tropical cyclone northeast. Some model runs have suggested this.

So there are several possible outcomes with this one. Julia remains in a region of weak steering currents, with the convection weighted to the eastern half, helping keep the movement to the right of forecasts. This rightward pull has and will likely continue unless and until the convection fills in to the west, or the cyclone's surface and mid level centers significantly decouple. "

Flhurricane.com

 

Julia is a tough one. Just like our SI Julia whom we haven't heard from in a while.