Tropical system forming in Gulf

As of 2:00 am EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ...

A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers over most of Honduras and the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into
the south-central Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba during
the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

7:20 a.m. Update:

"Disturbance 2: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ...
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
adjacent land areas.

Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, and a
tropical cyclone could form early next week over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the
next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

Flhurricane.com
"
Morning model runs for W. Carib:

0z Euro moves it to the west starting Monday as a weak mess over the main part of Mexico on Thursday.

6Z GFS, has it developing in the eastern gulf, late Monday, then a messy tropical storm landfall near Destin on Wednesday. Another area of energy spits off west toward Texas by the end of the week.
6Z GFS Parallel ramps things up fast in the east Gulf on Monday, and then a hurricane landfall in Panama City on Tuesday afternoon. Another area of energy spits off west toward Texas by the end of the week. (just rain)

CMC has a strong TS or Hurricane over Destin Wednesday morning.

Navgem has a mess moving over LA on Thursday with all the rain to the east.

Euro is still most likely (but not by much) the fact it's Saturday morning and we still have a split is a bit concerning, but keep watch on it. Monday is likely the day we'll know, which may not allow much preparation time time if the GFS is correct. GFS is seeing the split with some energy going to Texas later int he week, but the main part developing quickly in the eastern Gulf. It's hard to say much more since nothing has developed yet.

It likely will become an invest later today. Of the two, the Euro is more likely, but still worth watching either way. "

 

Doesn't seem like too much to ask for. Let me see what I can do...

 

As of 2:00 pm EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ...
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a broad low
pressure area has formed over the Gulf of Honduras, and the
associated shower activity is showing signs of organization.
Continued gradual development is expected as the system moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula during the remainder of
the weekend,

and a tropical cyclone is likely to form early next
week over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
Sunday, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

The wave is now invest 93L

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?year=2017&storm=3

 

Flhurricane.cim:
"93L is looking better organized this morning, and the models are slowly converging on an area between TX and the Florida Panhandle, with potential impacts as soon as Tuesday night those along these ares should monitor it closely.

Expect a typical June sloppy system, but it is possible this could develop somewhat rapidly once in the Gulf, so it is very mportant to monitor it.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to check the area out today."

 

As of 2:00 pm EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 ...
Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad low
pressure area is centered near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles
to the east and northeast of the center. However, the low lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, and the Hurricane Hunter mission
scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. Gradual development
is expected while the low moves slowly north-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over portions of Central America, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary. For more information on this system, please see the
High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

From flhurricane.com:

"
93L 12Z rundown

12Z GFS, starts getting it organized north of Cuba early tomorrow morning, then heads it up toward Southeastern Lousiana where the rain spits off to the east Tuedsay night into Wednesday, landfall sometime midday Wednesday on SE LA.

GFS parallel is similar to the operational GFS just a bit stronger.

CMC moves toward LA then turns a hard left toward Texas and rapidly weakens as it does.


Euro is a slow westward movement and sloppy, eventually turns into Texas Friday morning near Port O'Connor TX.

Recon this afternoon was cancelled since there is no obvious low level circulation right now.

The center may be trying to form on the northeastern tip of the trough associated with 93L, near Cuba, which may shift things a bit, although is fairly in line with the GFS. Interesting to watch"

You're welcomme this one is for our Gulf buoys

 

Flhurricane.com:
"At 19/21Z, PTC THREE was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret, the second named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Bret has become the earliest tropical storm formation east of the Antilles, and is one of only three on record to do so during the month of June at all in the MDR (Main Development Region).

As of 19/21Z, Bret was located just east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles, at 9.4N 59.8W, and was tracking west-northwest at a very fast 30 mph. Recon found a central pressure of 1007mb and maximum sustained winds of 35 knots, or 40 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles, mainly north of the center


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA INCLUDING ISLA DE MARGARITA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA

 

Cindy

Flhurricane.com:
"A tough one for forecasters to nail down, given its genesis as a product of a very broad monsoon gyre .. interacting with a tropical wave ... interacting with a diving upper level low ..

The 4AM NHC discussion brings up the possibility of THREE never becoming a tropical cyclone, but instead getting designated subtropical later today. Especially considering its ongoing interaction with the upper-level low to its west - imparting moderate to high shear and injecting dry air - this makes a great deal of sense.

On the other hand, the very last few frames from night vision IR suggest an effort by the cyclone may now be underway to align better with the deeper convection, convection which has been getting more robust since late yesterday. In this regard, it is behaving more like a sheared tropical cyclone. I personally lean more to this scenario, although not by a lot.

In THREE's case, the distinction between subtropical and tropical is more than academic. While the greatest threat will be from heavy, tropical precipitation (flooding) either way, a better (or worse) aligned system could have significant track implications, in addition to the potential for the cyclone to result in an area of more concentrated, potentially heavier wind damage (TC), as opposed to a more widespread, but possibly less severe wind risk (STC).


NHC will probably have a much better handle on its ultimate designation (Tropical or Subtrop) by this evening, but either way 'Cindy' appears to be a very safe bet. "