rance Eastern North Pacific Atlantic Disturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 3:40 pm EDT Sun May 13 2018 ... A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days. For more information on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.