Tropical update: Gulf

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, May 14, 2018.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    [​IMG] Eastern North Pacific [​IMG] [​IMG] Atlantic [​IMG]
    Disturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
    As of 3:40 pm EDT Sun May 13 2018 ...

    A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
    from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
    Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
    with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
    low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
    characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
    Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
    or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
    across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
    the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
    products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
    Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
    DonQ, eatswell and Zeroevol like this.
  2. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    “This area in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten itself together fairly quickly, and the NHC issued a special tropical weather outlook with a 40% chance for tropical or subtropical development.

    The biggest story here will be rainfall, upwards of 5-6 inches in parts of the Florida peninsula.

    This system isn't purely tropical now, but it could become a small tropical storm before it would eventually landfall (probably somewhere in the Panhandle Wednesday or Thursday) However, most of the rainfall energy will be well to the east, which should drive the rainy weather toward the Florida peninsula. 5-6 inches in a few places, possibly.

    There are signals of increased divergence aloft, which is what would be needed for something tropical or subtropical to form in the system. Shear is still fairly strong, but weakening a bit, with both the GFS and European models showing this area developing into a tropical or subtropical storm in three days or so”
    nopantsLance likes this.

  3. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Thank you, young lady!! Hope you are well.
    eatswell, nopantsLance and Betty like this.
  4. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012

    On the heels of what will likely soon be designated Invest 90L (the presently non-tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico), several models' runs have been lukewarm to bullish on cooking up a stronger cyclone in its wake, and one with much more tropical DNA, and the region is, for reasons that will be discussed below, looking favorable in the back half of this month.

    While this 'future cyclone' feature has not yet formed, odds favor development of a solid tropical disturbance at a minimum, one which could easily affect land and ocean interests in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico within the next 5-15 days, so we're starting a Lounge. Yes, this is somewhat unusual, as we normally wait for a disturbance to have existed before doing so. Suffice it say, we have time to keep a watchful eye on this potential future cyclone. This could be a significant system, on a relative basis. No hurricanes of record have made landfall along the Gulf coast states during the month of May.”
  5. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    Wow already that time againe huh?
    eatswell and Betty like this.
  6. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Well, with some good luck, maybe this early storm will herald in a lot of OFFSHORE storms for the East Coast, with plenty of fetch and no damage to coastal communities.
    Well, I can dream, can't I?
    jaklsurfs, eatswell and Betty like this.
  7. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    That would be ideal, fingers crossed!
    Betty likes this.
  8. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012

    Models this mroning are keeping the area generally weak, but with some chance for development. There is a lot of moisture and definite spin to this one, though.

    The Euro is now showing the West. Caribbean system that the GFS hinted at in the long range for May 24th-later or so, which may also be worth watching toward the end of next week. ”

    NHC had predicted 18 named storms this coming hurricane season.
  9. Panhandler

    Panhandler Well-Known Member

    Oct 27, 2015
    I opened up SI this morning, and this brings a smile to my face. After reading the who's been surfing threade with everyone having a week of surf, while good to hear some stoke, made me start to jones. Now we have a few days of bump coming up as well this potential. Waves, rain, and a little, not too much, wind would be great right about now. A few days of surf would be welcome relief from the past couple of weeks. Keep the good news coming Betty
    Betty likes this.
  10. LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2009
    We always seem to get one early... then nothing until late August, September.
    Betty and metard like this.
  11. mattinvb

    mattinvb Well-Known Member

    Sep 9, 2014
    Barry, the only way to be sure is for you to sacrifice one of your boards by setting it on fire and posting a video of it here to appease the swellinfo gods. The more expensive the board, the more they will be pleased...don't let this moment pass you by so that you spend your final days thinking what if..
    Betty, Barry Cuda, eatswell and 2 others like this.
  12. La_Piedra

    La_Piedra Well-Known Member

    Oct 9, 2017
    Yeah Barry, you should sacrifice the G&S.

    Then maybe you'll get some Good Surf.
    Lurker, Betty, Barry Cuda and 3 others like this.
  13. eatswell

    eatswell Well-Known Member

    Jul 14, 2009
    I've been hearing from my Floridian friends that they've been getting pissed on with rain all day, and it's supposed to be like that all week.

    And not much surf to be had for the ones that do surf, although one of them does live down in Delray Beach, which is like the flatlands of surfing.:eek:

    We do seem to get our first named storm in May more than occasionally.
    Betty likes this.
  14. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Which one of the three?? The longboard, the Egg, or the Magic?? If you say the Magic, a very dark cloud will come over your home and throw lightnings aplenty towards you!!!

    It would be better if I simply draw a Pentangle on the floor, stand on it, and chant, "i summons thee"!!
    Betty likes this.
  15. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    Yeah it rained all day and then let up around dinner and then again later in the night and into the morning. There is a little swell out there, wind and tide aren’t ideal though at the moment. Maybe after work if there is a break between storms.
    Betty likes this.
  16. ukelelesurf

    ukelelesurf Well-Known Member

    Apr 25, 2007
    Was driving to Mexico 2 years ago and somehow the stars aligned and was passing through the panhandle right when TS Colin was pumping swell. 2 days of great clean chest to very solid surf in the Gulf....Insane. Honestly the waves were better than anything we had the 1st four days in Mex. Doing it again this summer ......maybe a repeat ?????
    Panhandler, Betty and DawnPatrol321 like this.
  17. La_Piedra

    La_Piedra Well-Known Member

    Oct 9, 2017
    Amazing how good that area gets when the stars align.
    ukelelesurf and Betty like this.
  18. UnfurleD

    UnfurleD Well-Known Member

    Jul 13, 2016
    yea, i passed on it when it was chilly, cloudy n hungover after a wedding. they got waist to chest n i wasn't believing any of it until i saw the pics the next day. like the 4x of the year the gulf gets good, i passed. pretty stupid of me. getting the rain this afternoon, already seeing chop in the water n hoping for the balance of no tstorms n less chop to make my trek out to la playa
    Betty likes this.
  19. La_Piedra

    La_Piedra Well-Known Member

    Oct 9, 2017
    This is the time of the year that SwellInfo gets interesting, because you Right Coasters get all surf starved and start getting cranky with each other on this board. I swear you can totally set your fancy tide watch to it.

    And then early Fall rolls around and a couple of 'cane swells hit and it's kumbaya all over againe.

    Gotta love this place
    eatswell and Kanman like this.
  20. StuckontheGulf

    StuckontheGulf Well-Known Member

    Apr 23, 2012
    Yep, rained all day here yesterday. Today there is a very small 1 ft south line but not really breaking. Looking forward to some fun gulf surf with my son this year. Hopefully nothing as close as last year. I nearly lost everything but it's all properly insured so whatayagonnado.
    Betty likes this.