Tropical updates

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Aug 28, 2016.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    A tropical depression has formed off the Carolina coast.

    Overnight model runs (6z) for GFS on 99L:
    "
    GFS gets up to a Tropical storm and takes it into the Big Bend Friday morning (near Steinhatchee) then sits it over the northern side of the state near Jacksonville until Monday, then backs it out over the Gulf, bringing some rain to Louisiana, (another system then comes along into Georgia from the east at the end of the run, but that's incredibly far out)

    Euro strengthens the system in the Gulf, takes it over the Big Bend as a hurricane Friday, then out near Savannah Saturday early, then rides it up the Carolina coastline, bending away just before Hatteras, on the following Sunday.

    Euro also shows another, unrelated, hurricane in the Bahamas on Sept 7.

    HWRF Fires it up a bit later in the Gulf than earlier runs, but throws a landfalling cat 2/3 into the big bend late Wednesday into Thursday.near Crystal River.

    Bottom line, models for 99L seem to be converging on the Big Bend area, but mostly late in the week, which introduces some error.

    Basically the west coast of Florida and Northern Gulf coasts will need to watch the system, as the track may shift left or right a bit during the week. Intensity seems to be Tropical Storm or low end hurricane, with the outlier being HWRF which takes it up to major. Again, until something really forms it'll be hard to say.

    Beyond 99L another sytem will have a chance to get close to the Bahamas and Southeast around sep 8-11, but there's a long time to watch for that, and that one probably will be a developed system for much longer. It's development still not likely until tomorrow night."

    This is lifted off flhurricane.com
     
  2. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Tropical depression 8 will skate by N.C. Coast.

    "Tropical Depression EIGHT
    As of 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 28
    Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 knots; 35 mph
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
    Located at: 31.5N 70.0W
    Movement: west at 8 knots; 9 mp"