Looks like some potential for this tropical wave to bring the east coast some surf for next week. Below are the forecast models predictions for this system. The GFDL has this at Cat 2 status on Saturday, so this system has some potential. It just needs to fight off the sheer over the next couple of days.
i know this has been mentioned before but i couldnt find it searching the archives -- what is a good way to figure out how long it will be before the waves from a storm like this reach youre home break? (got a lot of stuff i have to move around so i can surf next week)
Swellinfo surf forecasts go out 5 days, but wave/period maps will go out 7.5 days. On the ground swells, a good way to track when the swell energy arrives is to look at the wave period maps. For this system, looks for the surf to pick up sunday/monday time frame. It will depend on how much development occurs.
Let's cross our fingers, but not get our hopes up. Other than the last few days, the summer has been flat as the pamlico sound.
I know this schrader ... and I'll be throwin buckets like clay marzo taking out my panic disorder frustration. See you soon.
Tracking? Alright i should know more about this as i have taken geography classes and my friend is a atmospheric science major, but how do i go about tracking this without hopping on the forums everyday asking you? Also, what is an invest is that just what they call big low pressure systems that look like they will form hurricanes?
become more familiar with the Swellinfo Hurricane Center. When you click on a individual storm, you will go to a page that will give you lots of resources. There are 2 drop down menus, one with text forecast resources on the left side of the page, and the other graphic resources on the right side of the page. I always check the text discussion from the NHC forecaster and also look at the computer model graphic forecasts, which show the paths of the individual forecast models. A Invest, short for investigation, is just an area that has potential to become a named tropical system. These are areas, that are often modelled and also investigated by the Hurricane Hunters that fly into the areas to get better data. As you become more familiar with the Hurricane resources, you will be understand how the tracking works.
I'm looking at your swell plots for sunday monday and seeing only 2' @ 10 for the delmarva. I guess your models aren't making much of 95L?
ok, here's the deal. The current(normal) Swellinfo model is based off of the GFS model winds, which is not showing much development. If development starts occuring, we switch over to our hurricane model based off of the GFDL winds. The GFDL is currently showing significant development to Cat 2 as it approaches Bermuda.
This tropical wave has started to get better organized this evening. We may see named either tonight or tomorrow.
Excellent news for I am driving down to the outer banks from Jersey, and maybe even hit up Florida to visit some family if I budget like I plan too, so fingers crossed on the gas prices and good swells. I don't want to have to start robbing banks and change my name to Bodie in order to get to Bells Beach for the fifty year storm.
