Tropical Wave to watch in Atlantic

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Aug 16, 2015.

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  1. Aug 20, 2015 #81
    The Lonesome Tractor

    The Lonesome Tractor Well-Known Member

    557
    Feb 13, 2012
    Betty is such a bitty.
     
    The Lonesome Tractor, Aug 20, 2015
    The Lonesome Tractor, Aug 20, 2015
  3. Aug 20, 2015 #82
    ibc

    ibc Well-Known Member

    1,368
    Aug 3, 2014
    I don't do any FB, Twitter, etc. SI is it for me.

    Frankie is freakin AWESOME!

    Feel free to let him know we think he should be Emperor of Nova Scotia.

    :cool:
     
    ibc, Aug 20, 2015
    ibc, Aug 20, 2015

  5. Aug 20, 2015 #83
    The Lonesome Tractor

    The Lonesome Tractor Well-Known Member

    557
    Feb 13, 2012
    They're going in.

    SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
    VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2015
    TCPOD NUMBER.....15-086
    I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON
    HURRICANE DANNY AT 22/2000Z NEAR 15.4N 52.7W AND AT
    23/1200Z NEAR 16.0N 56.4W.
    3. REMARKS: P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO DANNY
    EVERY 12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 22/1800Z. NOAA'S P-3
    AND G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS AROUND DANNY AT
    21/1400Z AND 21/1730Z RESPECTIVELY
     
    The Lonesome Tractor, Aug 20, 2015
    The Lonesome Tractor, Aug 20, 2015
  6. Aug 20, 2015 #84
    Hawky

    Hawky Well-Known Member

    850
    May 9, 2014
    #1 "Formation chance 60% through 5 days"

    that makes me happy.
     
    Hawky, Aug 20, 2015
    Hawky, Aug 20, 2015
  7. Aug 21, 2015 #85
    Towelie

    Towelie Well-Known Member

    2,864
    Nov 27, 2014
    Great, now it's gonna be all rainy and windy over the weekend...
     
    Towelie, Aug 21, 2015
    Towelie, Aug 21, 2015
  8. Aug 21, 2015 #86
    The Lonesome Tractor

    The Lonesome Tractor Well-Known Member

    557
    Feb 13, 2012
    2015082100.000_mdltrk.jpg

    How bout that COTC model?
     
    The Lonesome Tractor, Aug 21, 2015
    The Lonesome Tractor, Aug 21, 2015
  9. Aug 21, 2015 #87
    Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Warning cone says PR gonna get slammed, direct hit.
    With any luck, Rincon will be purged!!!
     
    Barry Cuda, Aug 21, 2015
    Barry Cuda, Aug 21, 2015
  10. Aug 21, 2015 #88
    Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Barry Cuda, Aug 21, 2015
    Barry Cuda, Aug 21, 2015
  11. Aug 21, 2015 #89
    Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Barry Cuda, Aug 21, 2015
    Barry Cuda, Aug 21, 2015
  12. Aug 21, 2015 #90
    seldom seen

    seldom seen Well-Known Member

    13,085
    Aug 21, 2012
    Towels will definitely be in high demand.
     
    seldom seen, Aug 21, 2015
    seldom seen, Aug 21, 2015
  13. Aug 21, 2015 #91
    LazyE

    LazyE Well-Known Member

    1,900
    Aug 6, 2014
    o barry

    that was an almost optimistic post. R you ok?
     
    LazyE, Aug 21, 2015
    LazyE, Aug 21, 2015
  14. Aug 21, 2015 #92
    Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    No--I am delirious with fever.
     
    Barry Cuda, Aug 21, 2015
    Barry Cuda, Aug 21, 2015
  15. Aug 21, 2015 #93
    Special Whale Glue

    Special Whale Glue Well-Known Member

    2,318
    Oct 8, 2011
    Only morons get a fever.
     
    Special Whale Glue, Aug 21, 2015
    Special Whale Glue, Aug 21, 2015
  16. Aug 21, 2015 #94
    LazyE

    LazyE Well-Known Member

    1,900
    Aug 6, 2014
    LazyE, Aug 21, 2015
    LazyE, Aug 21, 2015
  17. Aug 21, 2015 #95
    LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    6,024
    Aug 12, 2009
    ....nevermind....
     
    LBCrew, Aug 21, 2015
    LBCrew, Aug 21, 2015
  18. Aug 21, 2015 #96
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    I don't like that cone of anxiety. One jog to the north and it could miss the islands and head to S. Florida. Guess it's time to find all the hurricane shutters just in case.

    Here is the latest comment on flhurricane.com
    Mini model update.

    6z GFS and Euro haven't changed much from earlier, weaken drastically Sunday, through th enorthern islands and then Danny weakening greatly, getting torn to shreds by shear and dry air.


    Biggest outlier: The GFDL run which shows it missing PR/VI islands to the north and then regaining strength on the last frame.

    Danny is still worth watching, but the NHC's track is still spot on based on the information available. I do think they are being a bit weak on current intensity, though. When some of the planes arrives this afternoon, and especially tomorrow afternoon the accuracy should get much better.

    The next run, 12Z, was initialized with 100mph winds, but it will be several hours before the runs start to show up.
     
    Betty, Aug 21, 2015
    Betty, Aug 21, 2015
  19. Aug 21, 2015 #97
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    I don't like that cone of anxiety. One jog to the north and it could miss the islands and head to S. Florida. Guess it's time to find all the hurricane shutters just in case.

    Here is the latest comment on flhurricane.com
    Mini model update.

    6z GFS and Euro haven't changed much from earlier, weaken drastically Sunday, through th enorthern islands and then Danny weakening greatly, getting torn to shreds by shear and dry air.


    Biggest outlier: The GFDL run which shows it missing PR/VI islands to the north and then regaining strength on the last frame.

    Danny is still worth watching, but the NHC's track is still spot on based on the information available. I do think they are being a bit weak on current intensity, though. When some of the planes arrives this afternoon, and especially tomorrow afternoon the accuracy should get much better.

    The next run, 12Z, was initialized with 100mph winds, but it will be several hours before the runs start to show up.
     
    Betty, Aug 21, 2015
    Betty, Aug 21, 2015
  20. Aug 21, 2015 #98
    Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    3,106
    Jan 5, 2009
    Wow...Danny now a Cat 3 Major Hurricane.

    HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
    200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

    ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
    HURRICANE...

    Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
    is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
    Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
    with higher gusts.

    No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
    an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
    expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
    forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
     
    Mitchell, Aug 21, 2015
    Mitchell, Aug 21, 2015
  21. Aug 21, 2015 #99
    seldom seen

    seldom seen Well-Known Member

    13,085
    Aug 21, 2012
    Will he survive the wind shear?

    Will somebody ask the little boy to back off a tad?
     
    seldom seen, Aug 21, 2015
    seldom seen, Aug 21, 2015
  22. Aug 21, 2015 #100
    Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    3,106
    Jan 5, 2009
    wind shear map...it can't come through this without being shedded to bits.

    [​IMG]
     
    Mitchell, Aug 21, 2015
    Mitchell, Aug 21, 2015
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