Tropics: Week of June 11

This from flhurricane.com
"A tropical gyre appears to be developing near and over Central America. For the past week longer range global models have been fairly consistent in cooking up a tropical cyclone from this gyre that heads into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend of June 17th and/or into the following week.

Much run-to-run variability even exists within the individual models themselves, let alone among competing models. However, as the development of the gyre seems to be verifying, and the trend for tropical cyclone genesis in the western Atlantic is very consistent among all major models, a thread is being started on this still non-existent, but forecast future cyclone.

The overall setup and environment in the western Atlantic is likely to be conducive for tropical cyclogenesis to occur and strengthen in a broad sense around mid-month.

One potential mitigating factor is the formation of a stronger east Pac system in the near term. Models do not seem to have a good handle on East Pac Invest 92E, which has formed just west of Central America in that basin, and which could disrupt things for the western Atlantic. The more plausible scenario would be for 92E to track far enough west as to allow the gyre over Central America to continue cooking unimpeded, but this is TBD.

Another potential obstacle for this 'future cyclone' looks to be the introduction of some dry, subsident air during the latter half of June. "

How much if at all either of the two obstacles noted above are present next weekend and the following week (June 19-25) could be deciding factors. "


Tropical Tidbits also shows some nice maps.

 

And now we get to watch the Atlantic as well:

"Disturbance 1: 10% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 am EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 ...
A large area of showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a strong
tropical wave. Development, if any, of this system is expected to
be slow to occur during the next several days while the wave moves
westward near 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent."

 

I agree. But it's a fun warm up to watch

 

Keep watching for my buoys:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

"
1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located well south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula by the
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development of
this system while it moves slowly
northwestward toward the southern
Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

 

"As of 2:00 pm EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 ...
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

Love it!
Today's update

"As of 8:00 am EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 ...
Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
become better organized since yesterday. Additional slow
development is possible during the next few days while the wave
moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent."

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

 

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=97653&an=0&page=0#97653

Invest 92L Atlantic

 

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=97643&an=0&page=0#97643

Check out last two posts in this tread link re path of Caribbean system.

 

Disturbance 1: 30% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 2:00 pm EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 ...
Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
to show signs of organization. Slow development is possible during
the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Here we go...