Was at Manasquan all day today. Clouds, then Rain, then Fog, then Wind....then just as I was leaving the sun cracked out, the wind slacked, the air and water heated. Figures. Nothing for you surfers though really. About 3 different times where there was about 10 minutes of worthwhile waves. Edit: Oh, and I know the Tropics can last even into early November it just seems we're for the first time looking at one big gasp from it - probably the last chance for a big gasp of multiple systems.
It looks like 96L may be our best shot: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ 97L Looks destined for the Carribean. 96L looks like it has a shot to be a classic September storm track. Right in front of it are slackening shear - but just beyond that is increasing shear in the same region that Ingrid got torn apart. Although the system is a few days from that region so maybe we get lucky? Current Shear: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF Shear Tendency: (growth/decline) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF Looking out 72 hours is somewhat promising: http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/TropicalWinds72.aspx Depends on how far north it starts to curve and how early otherwise there might be a nice little corridor for it to sneak through going north of PR. A little too far north it'll grab those 30+ forecasted. Yet the current models seem to take it just south of that and in what might be a decent area to intensify.
Models show 96L strengthening until Tuesday, then hitting some wind shear, which will weaken it. Lets hope it can pick back up some strength after that. We need a good storm to hook north between us and Bermuda bringing waves to the whole East Coast. We deserve something decent in October since we got skunked in September.
Lamest Hurricane Season Ever...................I cant remember starving for waves so bad! Almost glad Winter time is here.............Ill trade in tourist crowds, bad traffic AND ZERO WAVES for cold water with waves anyday................FAH-Q 2007 NON HURRICANE SEASON...............bring on winter time! Sorrry to be so pessimistic
Yeah it's a shame how bad the wind shear has been for these storms! What is now Karen appears it will suffer wind shear fate. First being drawn northward then being ripped apart. It would be nice if she withstood the shear and made it north of 25 degrees as a substantial system - even though staying out to sea she'd generate some swells. What is of interest to us is a disorganized system near the Bahamas right now. Some models want to develop it and bring it due north right up the coast. No real intensity forecast for it however at the moment. Those are tricky systems though and if you guys remember some of the most notorious long island hurricanes formed right where it is and "surprised" everyone how it did so then rocketed northbound. So we will have to wait and see about that one. At least there is some action in the Atlantic so maybe we get some nice swells through the first two weeks of October? I was at Squan on Monday. Beautiful beach day but nothing to be had. Even right at the Inlet's jetty there were only a few waves reaching 3 feet at best. I had maybe 10 good body surfing rides further up the beach...over the course of six hours. Kinda pitiful. Be hopeful though! Yet these damn cold fronts lined up --- one hitting us thursday eve - might dam up the entire atlantic and deflect any storms headed our way.
Karen OK so Karen should be Hurricane by end of the day, or tomorrow but doesnt look like it will throw to much swell this way................I see the models are showing another storn comming off of Africa early next week (Monday actually), and by the looks of it, it should come off of Africa with strenght.................Swell, What up with that? http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna.anim.gif
