Trump / FBI / Russians

With respect, you can look at fundamentals all day long but sometimes psychological drivers can create a bear ‘market’ (down 20%+).

I think we are experiencing that (in Lieu of strong fundamentals). Opinion as per usual...

China economic trends, increase in gold, dems/house, interest rate (uncertainty) etc. it may or may not be a glitch depending on how one or more of the aforementioned pays out (fundamentals not withstanding)...

 

Absolutely, perception (emotion) is a short-term market driver. It creates volatility. Traders love this sort of market because volatility begets opportunities, again on a short-term gig.

Investors are different than traders. They seek opportunities for the long haul. Opportunities created by short-term perspectives aka volatility.

Folks gotta do what they gotta do to make themselves comfortable in the financial world. Everyone has a different perspective when it comes to money.

I do think that the market instability in recent days / months is the result of emotion-driven trading relative to the Democrat victories in the mid-terms, as well as the incoming wave of Democrats & the related media hype to their comments to the media this week.

imho, that's all it is

 

I agree, volatility is a traders friend. I’m more of an investor with a trader slant. This environment creates both short and long term opportunities. I get what you are saying regarding this (short term volatility).

I still believe (regardless of what is causing it) we are flirting with, if not already in a bear market. Not to be confused with recession. I think it is a good thing for long term. Will probably be short lived due to aforementioned strength in economy (although corporate earnings and interest rates could push us toward recession...)

The jobs report yesterday was really positive. Pretty amazing.

Aside: interesting how China and Tariffs affected Apple. I don’t own Apple currently but that thing got whacked.

 

Markets going down is a good thing if you are in it for the long term.

 

Kiddie makes good points and has changed my perspective on a wall. However, what about the notion that a 20 foot wall only requires a 21 foot ladder? Meaning will it really work?

 

Agreed. What good is a wall if no one is there to "man" it? Walls, drones, and helicopter patrols are all good, but they don't physically take these people into custody or divert them in the other direction. If I walked all the way from Chiapas to the border with nothing but my belongings on my back and some coyotes offer me the resources to get across (ladders, ropes,etc) in exchange for carting some drugs across with me, I'm taking that deal.

 

Then there's the border agents. Over-worked, under-staffed, overwhelmed. A couple years on the job down there will turn even the best agent apathetic. Two agents in an SUV having to patrol over 50 miles of uninhabited border areas, watching droves of illegals try to cross every day. That's a tough gig.

 

Why don’t we just setup land mines?

 

I have been saying that for years!!
Also, sniper practice. And put a bounty on their heads!!
America!! How I love thee!!!

 

Fungus's and CyC's comments are on the money.

First issue: land mines lol. Despite their historical blatant disrespect for our laws, they are still our friendly neighbors. Even Israel doesn't do this to Palestine. The problems need to be handled politically and technologically.

In theory, yes, a 21 foot ladder will work...sometimes.

But in reality, there are at least a dozen different versions of existing fencing due to terrain, location, funding and politics. In some locations, ladders can be used to some degree of success, but several factors make them risky.

For one thing, you can climb up one side, but how do you get down the other side? The fencing was built to make it difficult to scale.

Let's get one thing straight right away: Mexicans are not going down to the Mexican Home Depot and buying 21 foot ladders. They fabricate them out of cheap (but strong) yellow nylon rope, strategically knot the rope on 2 sides, then cut and place "rungs" between the knots by cutting 1/2" PVC pipe. Then, they cut steel rebar and twist them into grappling hooks, then knot them at the top of the homemade boat ladder. This allows them speed and stealth while making their way towards the fence, as opposed to several people lugging a 20 foot ladder in an area loaded with cameras, manpower and technology.

They toss the rebar hooks towards the top of the fence like Batman until the books grab successfully. Then, when the scouts feel the area is cleared, send their groups forward to start scaling. NOTE: Ladder entry methods are used only by experienced smugglers. No random family from Chiapas is entering in this manner lol.

Next, you have to scale down into the US. Scaling down is basically done by grabbing one of the 6" rusty steel posts which hold the fencing together And while many people are successful, a great deal are unsuccessful. Many are caught on camera, or observed outright by Border agents and caught.

Scaling down these posts is not an easy task. It's a long way down and there's little to grab on to. For this reason, a considerable number of illegals fall and become injured, many of them suffering broken bones. This is why the ladder method is only used by young strong adult males. Although it happens rarely, you almost never see females using a rope ladder to scale these fences.

Also, ladders are only used in rural areas because of the risk of being noticed by the general population in urban areas. In rural areas, one can get up and over in a relatively short period of time, and wait in the brush for the others. In the city, the idea is to not be seen until you can blend in with the largely Hispanic population that comprises the US side of the border.

In one urban area in particular, smugglers run to the fence out of view of cameras, all of which are known and in plain view. They have modified bolt cutters which allow them to slowly and painfully cut the double mesh steel wires which comprise one style of fence. It takes them hours to do this, but they are patient. The steel is very strong, but they will cut just enough where they can bend the fencing back enough to allow bodies to pass.

I can go on and on about the different styles of fencing and how they've been breached.

But the point is, before these obstacles were installed during the last 20 years, there was very little to stop these people from entering in huge numbers on a daily basis. Such fencing has made it much more difficult than it had been, which makes fencing (or walls) very effective.

But a wall is not the be all, end all.

 

Where there's a will (wall?), there's a way...

 

My approach to the wall is simple:
The length of the the USA/Mexico border is 1934 miles.
The length of the USA/ Canada border is 3950.
We have no real problems with Canada on our borders.
We have nothing but a LOT of problems with Mexico on our borders.
That alone is "a priori" evidence that people of Central America just plain suck for this topic (they may be nice for other topics). - not worth letting them in. Keep them out. Build a wall. If they illegally climb over, no problem-just make sure as they come down they are actually falling down with an 30-.06 lodged in their brain.
Problem will be done in minutes. NEXT TOPIC!!!

 

So, it's going to take a combination of fencing, manpower and technology to better guard against the illegal immigration issue.

Trump's "wall" is, admittedly, a rallying cry for his voting base. But it is also a realization of the fact that we need better barriers to be more successful. From what I've seen and read, the "wall" he's settled on very much resembles the barriers set up by Israel in their frontiers, which have proven to be very successful.

Additionally, the Israeli-style barriers have proven effective from vehicle entry, cutting, scaling and other attempts at breaching (except tunneling). Imitating these barriers will make obsolete the current hodgepodge of barriers currently being used to varying levels of success.

Let's touch on CyC's observations.

Yeah the coyotes are offering up ways to cross, known as "plata o plomo" (silver or lead), which means we will pay you to cross our drugs or you can take the other option of putting a bullet in you.

But by far, people are paying huge sums of money to get here. And over 90% of them are now using smugglers, because the increase in fencing and manpower during the Dubya years has made it almost impossible to just jump a fence or cross a river like back in the old days.

Back before then, it might cost $50 to be guided across the river, or $500 to be escorted from Sinaloa to San Diego.

Now, it's at least $10,000-$15,000 to be professionally smuggled from your point of origin across the border, usually into the interior (Kansas, So. Carolina, Montana, everywhere basically) where a job is usually waiting for you.

Sometimes a family will save for months or years and pay the fees up front. Sometimes, they will pay a portion of it upon the promise of paying off the debt by working at these predetermined employment locations. Meat processing plants, farms, horse stables, restaurants, construction companies and hotels make up a substantial proportion of the places, many of them knowingly working with smuggling cartels.

I don't know about the rest of you, but $15 grand is a lot of money. Kind of puts the "poor, starving" narrative in context. Most of these people are seeking a better life, but already have a roof over their heads, along with a vehicle, a cell phone, and usually jewelry.

The people that you see on the Mexican street corners begging or selling "chicle" are almost never the people attempting to enter the country. So let's end that narrative as well.

 

I am not saying putting down land mines and not letting anyone know where they are. You have a cheap border length fence. On the US side you have a 200 foot wide land mine zone- clearly marked. Just like the Korea DMZ.

 

Not sure if anybody has thought about this but i just did some simple math and noticed something.

The government has been shut down for two weeks now. Lets say 14 days.

Say there are 2 million federal government employees. This is a very rough number i believe there are actually close to 3/4 of a million more.

These employees (for the most part) have not worked for the last 2 weeks but will likely recieve a paycheck when the government starts back up.

Say the average salary of federal employees is 33 dollars, at least thats what google told me.

So 2 million employees, for 14 day, assuming an 8 hour day, at a rate of 33 $/hour =

$7,392,000,000.00

7.4 billion dollars that will potentially be paid out for work that was not performed.

...Wasn't trump only asking for 5?

build the damn wall. Quit wasting time and money.

 

And lastly, the agents.

Understaffed and overworked?

Think of the border as a big water balloon. Illegals, like water, will go to the areas of least resistance. When the numbers become overwhelming, agents will respond by transferring more agents and technology to that particular area.

When it becomes to difficult to cross (San Diego for example), the illegals will begin to exploit another area (Brownsville, Laredo, Tucson etc). Like squeezing a water balloon, water will slip through the fingers of the areas providing the least resistance.

Any agents not working in a hot zone are not really overworked. On the contrary, it can prove to be extremely boring.

Much has changed for agents in the last 20 years. Up until 1994, agents "patrolled" areas and "responded" to illegal traffic, either from seismic or magnetic sensors, or visual observation.

1994 was a pivotal year for immigration agents because, very much like today, American citizens were sick and tired of the crime and abuse of benefits that inherently follow illegal immigration. And, believe it or not, California was at the forefront. The state proposed laws cutting off any and all benefits for illegal aliens. It was subsequently voted down by an extremely narrow margin.

During the same time, the big chief of the Border Patrol sector in San Diego started an operation called Gatekeeper. The sector began installing Vietnam era steel airplane landing mats as fencing to replace the barbed wire and 6 foot chain link fencing that existed for decades.

Additionally, agents were no longer allowed to freely patrol areas in their vehicles. Instead, they were now ordered to maintain static, unmoved positions directly in front of the border fences, strategically spaced at approximately 200 yards apart.

Agents were to remain in this position for their entire 10 hour shift, unless they were making an arrest.

This operation was very successful at the time. In fact it was so successful that other sectors like El Paso and Tucson quickly followed suit, turning what was once roving agents into essentially "border guards". As you can imagine, agents became extremely bored and disgruntled.

Now, "Operation Gatekeeper" is no longer an operation, but how 20,000 agents do business on a daily basis. As you can imagine, morale is generally pretty low when you're forced to stare at a fence in the middle of a desert in freezing/burning temps for 10 hours a day.

But, many agents actually enjoy their jobs. They'll tell you that catching people is fun, but the constantly changing policies of the political football that is immigration can be mentally overwhelming.

For sake of reference, I spent a number of years at FLETC in St. Simons Island, Charleston SC and New Mexico as a law instructor for incoming CBP Officer trainees.

Any questions lol

 

A death sentence for trying to cross the border? Seems a bit much imo.

 

Some good info Kidd, thanks for sharing.

I don't think most people oppose the wall, just want to hold Trump to his words like the R's held Obama to some of the dumbs*** he said. Once again, if Trump wouldn't have went stupid saying Mexico would pay for it, I don't think we would be in this situation. He gave the Dem's political ammo with his poor choice of words, not surprising they are using it as much as they can. No matter how you spin it on a trade deal, if they are taking my money from my check to pay for the wall then Mexico isn't paying for it.

My hope is that this stalemate government will eventually lead to a third party, but I ain't holding my breath