TS Barry in GOM

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Jul 8, 2019.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    [​IMG]
    Vie
    Disturbance 1: 80% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 5 Days
    As of 8:00 am EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 ...

    A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
    move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
    area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some
    gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
    is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
    the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has
    the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
    northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
    information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
    your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
    Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
    peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
     
  2. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    Good work, you beat me to it! I just saw this and was gonna post.
     
    desandan, nopantsLance and Betty like this.

  3. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    From Flhurricane.com:


    The 0z Euro now forms something in the Gulf late Thursday, and then moves potentially a category 1/2 hurricane into Texas just north of Houston Saturday night.
    The GFS moves a much weaker rain system into Corpus Christi Saturday night.
    The older legacy GFS model has switched from the east route and also moves the rain into Texas near Corpus.
    The Canadian has shifted further west, but brings the storm back onto the Panhandle after forming in the Gulf.
    The UKMet and German ICON model move it into the Eastern Louisiana, although the ICON is much stronger (cat 2) than the UK (Tropical Storm)
     
  4. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    Holy Shit! A tropical storm or hurricane is about to form in the Gulf of Mexico!

    Swellinfo:

    gulf.jpg
     
    desandan, headhigh, smitty517 and 7 others like this.
  5. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
  6. oipaul

    oipaul Well-Known Member

    671
    May 23, 2006
    I'm already depressed
     
    nopantsLance, La_Piedra and Betty like this.
  7. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Your SI graph shows forecast from the end of June.?
     
    goofy footer likes this.
  8. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    Yep -
    welcome to the new improved Swellinfo, where the latest surf forecasts not only provide no information but also haven't been updated in weeks.
     
  9. Panhandler

    Panhandler Well-Known Member

    238
    Oct 27, 2015
    Betty, please work your magic.
    It would be swell if we could get a nice TS or low 1 that hovers a bit in the Gulf, then moves past quickly. We could really use some waves, but our neighbors to the west don't need rain, and the ones to the east don't need anymore wind.
    Hope its not too much to ask
     
  10. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Okay PH!
     
    Panhandler likes this.
  11. UnfurleD

    UnfurleD Well-Known Member

    871
    Jul 13, 2016
    80% chance of development; on its way to Texas is the info i gathered this morning
     
    desandan likes this.
  12. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the
    northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
    to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development
    over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
    form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward
    across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

    An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on
    Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to
    produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
    Panhandle during the next several days.

    In addition, this system could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this
    weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along
    the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more
    information, please see products issued by your local weather
    forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    Forecaster Stewart
     
  13. StuckontheGulf

    StuckontheGulf Well-Known Member

    524
    Apr 23, 2012
    Chance of getting my hopes up? High. Chances of getting let down? Also high!
     
  14. antoine

    antoine Well-Known Member

    Mar 10, 2013
    Chance of getting high?
     
    UnfurleD and Betty like this.
  15. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A broad low pressure area located over the far northeastern Gulf of
    Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms.

    Environmental conditions are conducive for
    development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
    form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward
    across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

    An Air Force Reserve Unit
    reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
    this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical
    storm or hurricane force winds across portions of the Louisiana,
    Mississippi and Upper Texas coasts, and interests there should
    closely monitor its progress.

    In addition, this disturbance has the
    potential to produce very heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast
    to the Florida Panhandle. For more information, please see products
    issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather
    Prediction Center.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
     
  16. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    FLHurricane.com:


    Tropical cyclogenesis is now underway, with 92L still gliding further offshore, and over progressively warmer waters. It is close to certain that advisories will begin today, Wednesday, or Thursday at the very latest.

    The 0z model runs strongly suggest a Houston to New Orleans landfall, but this is still very much uncertain. Recon missions will help, and model runs out Thursday should be more reliable. A Major Hurricane at landfall is not out of the question, as is just a very, very wet high-end Tropical Storm, so we really need this recon data to help tease out subtleties that exist now, but which could have outsized influence down the road.
     
  17. JayD

    JayD Well-Known Member

    Feb 6, 2012
    Good day Betty! Looks like ole Barry is going to be a rainmaker
     
    Betty likes this.
  18. La_Piedra

    La_Piedra Well-Known Member

    Oct 9, 2017
    Anyone else ever notice how anything named Barry tends to rain all over everybody's shit?
     
  19. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    Wouldn’t want it any other way lol
     
    Betty and La_Piedra like this.
  20. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012