The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean more than a thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. 1. A well-defined low pressure system located about midway between the southeastern United States and Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward then northward off the coast of North Carolina. Although the system is forecast to interact with a frontal zone early next week, it could linger off the southeast U.S. coast where some additional development is possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
What should become the C storm is already spinning just offshore of South Carolina. Windy.com shows this swirl stalled till middle of next week then turning into a tropical storm on Tuesday or Wednesday. Looks like some swell the second half of next week.
One can surely hope it will form!!! As for Beryl, I am hoping it forms into a Cat 5 and then slams into PR again. Why?? Serves them right for whining on the last one!! BWAHAHAHAHA!!!! I know, I know....that's just plain mean.....I'm sorry.....
This is interesting: “Beryl formed over quite anomalously cool SSTs, at 25.6c vs a long-term 'normal' in this part of the Atlantic at this time of year of about 27c. Dr. Phillip Klotzbach notes that only 'about 5% of all Atlantic tropical cyclones have formed in colder than 26°C SSTs on average, and most of these form much further north.' In fact, in addition to this oddity, Dr. Klotzbach also points out that Beryl now has 'the strongest winds for an Atlantic tropical cyclone this far south (10.4°N) in July on record.' So either we have a bad case of mistaken identity (overestimating Beryl's true strength, and to some extent, possibly even how well closed off the cyclone is at the surface), or we are indeed witnessing quite a performance from a little tropical low that could. All that said, it does look like Beryl is well encased within a protective cocoon of very moist air and within a low to very low shear environment. These favorable conditions are mostly expected to last almost up until the cyclone just about reaches the Lesser Antilles by about Monday, at which point models almost universally devolve Beryl into an open wave. However, several keep this area of low pressure quite strong, and a few suggest redevelopment once in the the central Caribbean or closer to the Bahamas. Given Beryl's exceptionally small size, rapid weakening and dissipation would normally be the near certain outcome, but considering both the nest with which the cyclone rides in and its vigor, these models that open the cyclone back up into a tropical wave never to reform might be getting it wrong. Soon Beryl will be within range of hurricane hunter missions. This information will probably prove very helpful in sorting this one out. “— flhurricane.com
hope you get some...you may get blocked on part of the action by Hatteras. Still plenty of time for things to shake out!
Thanks man, I’m not asking for much, just a real wave with real rides that have real drops and real turns.
Ummm, what's with the "atta-girl" thing with Betty? She is probably smarter than both of our IQs added up together!! Or are you referring to Beryl??
at·ta·girl [ˈadəˌɡərl] EXCLAMATION an informal expression of encouragement or admiration to a woman or girl nothing but respect for Betty
I've been dealing with a herniated cervical disc since kissing the floor of the ocean back in early March...not able to surf since early May due to symptoms. I'm hording all of my Vicodin for these storms....no way I can miss a July hurricane. If only SJB was still around, he could probably PM a secret pharmaceutical recipe to make it through the day.
“The last 24 hours have been very tough on tiny Beryl, with scatterometer and recon data showing that the process of degenerating into an open wave is well underway. Unless a substantial increase in organization occurs this afternoon, the Final Advisory will likely be written, and the system would probably track into the eastern Caribbean as a vigorous tropical wave with some heavy showers, storms and strong wind. Later in the week, Beryl, or her remnants, may have a chance to get better organized, but at this time forecast steering currents suggest a recurvature out to sea of anything possibly significant (still too early to know for sure). “— flhurricane.com
