A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms from Hispaniola northward across the Turks and Caicos Islands. This activity is forecast to spread west-northwestward, enhancing rainfall across Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas this weekend, and across Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by early next week. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of this system during the next couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for a surface low pressure area to form when the disturbance moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
“7:00 a.m. The overnight Euro run slows the system down when it gets into the Gulf, giving the time for it to potentially become a hurricane in southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday morning. GFS is weaker, a disorganized wave or tropical depression into Southeast Louisiana. Neither model show it organized before entering the gulf. The Canadian shows a hurricane into Southern Texas Thursday morning, GFS FV3 is a little further west than the main GFS, but also very weak. Those in the Gulf coast should be watching this system closely, until its a bit more organized things are bit more difficult to forecast, but the potential for a hurricane is there. It appears the affect Hispaniola had on the system was to concentrate everything on the north side, closer to the Turks and Caicos, giving it the spark on that side. We'll have to watch today/tomorrow if things spin up quicker than anticipated on the Atlantic side also. But the chances for Gulf development definitely have gone up quite a bit. Those in the Gulf coast should be watching this system closely, until its a bit more organized things are bit more difficult to forecast, but the potential for a hurricane is there. 10:00 a.m. Analyzing the satellite it appears there's an attempt to get organized just southeast of Inagua island, moving away from Hispaniola.” flhurricane.com
Keep the goode news coming Betty. We've had some disorganized mush the last couple of days. Certainly not complaining because its been flat for a while here and it was really nice to be on a wave, and was able to manage some fun rides. But I pulled up SI and saw the forecast for Tues and Wednesday had jumped up, first place I looked was for your update. Scheduled a vacation day Tues to stretch midweek into 3 days off. May have to drive a little in either direction depending on how this one progresses. Hopefully the forecast holds
As of 2:00 am EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 ... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast office for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
yclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 ... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little, if any, development is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast office for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
“Not quite closed based on the ACSAT, but getting there, probably will be tomorrow at the latest. It'll likely remain weak even in the Gulf, rainmaker is still the most likely scenario, IMHO. However, there's enough uncertainty, to say no one should let their guard down.” Flhurricane.com
As of 0500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 (Advisory # 1) Maximum Sustained Winds: 25 knots; 30 mph Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb Located at: 22.7N 77.3W Movement: west-northwest at 13 knots; 15 mph Formation Potential * Formation Chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation Chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical storm Gordon forms near upper Florida Keys As of 0830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 (Advisory # 4) Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 knots; 45 mph Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb Located at: 25.1N 80.7W Movement: west-northwest at 15
