“As of 5:15 pm EDT Thu Sep 6 2018 ... Updated: A tropical wave with an accompanying low pressure area is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. This system is already showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
...”Environmental conditions of light to moderate easterly shear and SSTs of 27-28C should support development of this system, and the NHC forecast shows it becoming a tropical storm by 12 hours. Gradual strengthening is indicated by the bulk of the intensity guidance through the next 3-4 days. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase and the system will be moving into somewhat cooler waters, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The NHC forecast is close to the latest HCCA guidance and a little higher than the IVCN consensus...” NHC
