NHC : Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Mon Sep 3 2018 ... A tropical wave located more than 400 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Flhurricane.com says: “Advance model runs suggest this one is worth watching closely, also, currently 30% chance for development. Euro has it approaching the lesser Antilles 10 days out, 6Z GFS Crosses the lesser Antilles then gets shread apart over Hispaniola. 6Z FV3 GFS has it further north, crosses the Bahamas, and then landfalls near Ft. Lauderdale September 18th as a category 3 hurricane. Canadian does nothing with it at all. “ flhurricane,com
Disturbance 1: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Tue Sep 4 2018 ... A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move slowly westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Here is the summary of the models, per Flhurricane.com “Quick model summary, a lot depends on what happens to Florence for 92L 6z GFS, by next friday (!4th) just north of the lesser antilles, rides north of Puerto Rico, over the northern part of HIspanoila, by Sep 16, over most of Cuba, in Gulf by Sep 18th, starts to strengthen, Cat 2 landfall in Tampa Bay the afternoon of Wednesday, Sep 19th. Back in the Atlantic by midnight on the 20th out by St. Augustine, over the outer banks on the morning of the 21st, the rides along the shore toward NJ. 0z Euro, blocked by Florence recurves east of the lesser Antilles. GFS FV3 also does this. 0zCMC Launches it straight north this friday into the open Atlantic. 0z UK generally follows GFS track up until the UK run ends. “ So, for now, watch and wait. Oh, and a depression will likely form today. If it further develops, the name would be Helene.
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 36.6 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward motion with an increase in forward speed are expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Isaac could become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
