TS Julia, TS Karl, Next TS forming

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Sep 16, 2016.

  1. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Disturbance 1: 40% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
    As of 8:00 am EDT Sat Sep 17 2016 ...
    Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
    area associated with a tropical wave located between Africa and the
    Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
    development, and a tropical depression could form by the
    early part of next week while this system moves westward to
    west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This
    system is likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of
    the Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
     
  2. fl.surfdog

    fl.surfdog Well-Known Member

    Dec 6, 2010

    Went up in your neck of the woods to day, a little spot that I've been surfing for a long time now, kinda funky in the A.M., waited for a while for the tide to drop, the wind was N.E. 5 to 8 mph not enough to really mess it up to bad, caught some chest to shoulder and some maybe a bit bigger but really fun with a lot of makeable sections....really, really fun day.
     

  3. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    Sounds like a blast! Wish we coulda met up, I was actually inland at the inlaws today, but getting on it in the morning.
     
  4. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Julia defying NHC forecasters overnight. She has strengthened and looks like she will hang on longer as she travels north from off the JAX coast toward off the NC coast. She continues to send swell down to Florida.

    Karl is strengthening this week into a hurricane.

    The wave off Africa has a 70% chance of becoming a Depression in the next several days and is in good shape, moving across the Atlantic.

    Forecaster Betty
     
  5. Sandblasters

    Sandblasters Well-Known Member

    May 4, 2013
    choo choo we have had waves for the past week or two keep em comming choo choo.
     
  6. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Hayzzzuuuuusssss!!! A flight on Tuesday to PR to be ready for Karls swell on Thursday would be perfecto!!!
     
  7. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    We are gonna need some pictures if you go.
    Sincerely Yours,
    Your Adoring Fan,
    Forecaster Betty
     
  8. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Cannot go. More important event- Daughter and grand daughter coming to visit Thursday to Sunday. Family first in my book.
     
  9. fl.surfdog

    fl.surfdog Well-Known Member

    Dec 6, 2010
    Damn....three days straight....again today another day of lingering swell.... still chest high and super clean bowls, visited my local jetty today, crowded but actually there were a lot of people that just didn't know how to surf, so it was real easy getting around them or they just wouldn't go.....had another really good day.....beat....haha
     
  10. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    One model (Euro) has Karl tracking towards Bermuda and intensifying to hurricane by Friday.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. sigmund

    sigmund Well-Known Member

    Dec 7, 2015
    I don't see Karl helping our NE wave drought. No juice in the system and too early a turn, but Florida should be fun.
     
  12. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    Could be, but it depends on how sharp of turn. Never-the-less, we still could get a small long period swell, waist high kind of crap. Better than nothing, I suppose.
    Never have experienced such a flat summer as this one and last one as well. Goes hand in hand with the 2-year drought we are experiencing, as it points to lack of storms.
     
  13. Riley Martin's Disgruntled Neighbor

    Riley Martin's Disgruntled Neighbor Well-Known Member

    Aug 22, 2012
    Whatever the timing is, I bet we (NE) get 2 full days of fun surf and depending on where you are on the coast I like there to be some pockets of decent swell filling in which wont show up on the forecast maps/apps. Kind of hoping its Sunday / Monday.
     
  14. sigmund

    sigmund Well-Known Member

    Dec 7, 2015
    Maybe RI, but I'm not seeing it for anywhere else, but we'll see how it evolves, never know with these things.
     
  15. Riley Martin's Disgruntled Neighbor

    Riley Martin's Disgruntled Neighbor Well-Known Member

    Aug 22, 2012
    I know its not good science, but the only model I trust is the Navy WAM, and that's got the turn happening, but a little closer to the coastline than some others I've seen. lots of variables. I still like us to get some fun swell. Not sure I'd wager on it, though. Not yet, at least.
     
  16. ScobeyviIIe

    ScobeyviIIe Well-Known Member

    Nov 3, 2015
    How has no one made a Trans vest ite joke?
    TS Jill, pre or post op?

    This place has changed! I expect more from you degenerates!
     
  17. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    It's the lack of swell in the water, mojo is low
     
  18. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    TS Lisa has formed from TD Twelve . She is expected to strengthen and then weaken to a remnant low. She will stay out to sea.
     
  19. JayD

    JayD Well-Known Member

    Feb 6, 2012
    Did you see Karl straighten west? That is significant for swell from Centro Fl to outer banks!!!
     
  20. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Indeed. At this time, NHC is stumped about Karl. They think he may fall apart and remain a remnant low, or intensify when it leaves hostile territory. That's a big spread of opinion! He may send swell to Florida regardless. He bears watching.