Interestingly it has bent a bit south. This prolonged Westerly movement with a hint of south brings a Florida landfall into play (or higher probability). Y'all be safe and get your provisions now.
Over/Under- I put all my money down on this storm being East of Fl and then tracking out to sea. East coast is about to get LIT UP! ( Think Sandy type surf without the landfall...)
I'm buying new leashes (I'm using two at once if it gets chest hi or bigger), new leash strings will be installed and double knotted twice, also tuning up the jet skii. It's on!!!!
Wow, that was a huge jump back to the east for the gfs..wonder if that trend will continue...think I will just shut up now.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. Just pulled this off the 2 pm NHC discussion. Cheers!
"Even though steering currents are starting to slow down now that Matthew is feeling less intense trade winds while the Gulf Trof - Bermuda High combo are still positioned too far to the NW & NE respectively for Matthew to feel, steering currents have not collapsed, and in fact, are now starting to trend more southerly ... something that if Matthew were to follow for a day or two could easily impact future track and intensity in a meaningful way ... Significant differences continue to exist between the ECMWF ensemble members and the GFS ensemble members. It is noteworthy that many of these have also already initialized Matthew as too weak and/or too north of current intensity/location. Also, as Dr. Jeff Masters of Wunderground points out, given large scale uncertainties, the tight clustering of GFS ensembles late in the period could actually be an indication of a systemic error in that model. The take-away is this: Multiple players with sizeable inherent uncertainties of their own, coupled with the possibility of model weaknesses, are affecting the quality of the model outputs, and thus, the official forecast cones. Florida, the east coast, and indeed, even the Gulf, are still at risk here, and should not take their eyes off of things. " -- flhurricane.com
Yeah, expected to impact Jamaica and eastern Cuba as a major hurricane - cat 4, possibly worse. I just shudder to think of those little towns without the resources we have, and with the steep terrain...mudslides/devastating flash flooding...wiping out houses getting pounded by this kind of system. Hurricane Mitch in Honduras for example...families losing family members swept away never to be seen again.
The 8 pm update puts Matthew at 150 mph. Ho Lee Fuk! That's a wicked storm. Starting to get some Sandy-like surf conditions in forecasts down here. Swell for days. As long as it makes that turn and we don't get hammered. My house is actually aboot eight blocks from the edge of the cone of uncertainty so I'm good for now. Besides, I live much of my life in some sort of cone of uncertainty anyway. Rubber boots and raincoats are ready.
