"0Z GFS Run slips direct landfall just west of Haiti, but does bring the bad weather over Haiti (including the eastern blob of convection) late Monday night. Landfall eastern tip of Cuba Tuesday morning, Right up the Central Bahamas, over Nassau Wednesday night. Closest to the Outer Banks on Saturday Morning, but shifted east from earlier runs, Eventually landfalls in Halifax, Nova Scotia on Sunday night October 10th. 0zEuro does show landfall on the western tip of Haiti, but on Tuesday, bumps a bit northeast over Crooked Island in the Bahams then moves northwest through the Central Bahamas and winds up close to north Carolina on Sunday October 10th, but no landfall. This run is much slower than the GFS and west of earlier Euro runs. After that it heads out to sea. Matthew tonight is slightly west of the forecast track this morning, which could shift the near term a bit left, but still likely to avoid a direct landfall with Jamaica. This system is large and powerful, so even a miss would still see strong weather, particularly just east of the eye, still would be preferable to a direct hit. In short The east coast, Florida through Canada will need to continue to monitor Matthew closely uncertainty remains very high." flhurricane.com Also forecaster Betty is keeping an eye on an open wave 600 miles east of Leewards which is now at 30%'chance of TD within 5 days. This morning now has Friday as the day the wind will die down for surfing, rather than Thursday.
It's going to light up the right coast for sure, it's a little to close in my opinion, but time will tell.
4 steering bubbles make this thing hard to predict. High in the Atlantic, a low in the Gulf, a trough off the Carolinas and if that is not enough there is a front pushing down from the mid west. All of these can affect where he goes and its just a matter of timing. Best bet for now is to hold off on any surf plans until late Tues. Reports by then will be pretty accurate. Still looking like the weekend will be good...just hoping that beast does not jog to the West.
Forecast does look good for Southern New England starting Friday through Monday. Safe to say we are hoping it stays far enough offshore to not directly hit anyone on the East coast. All the classic spots should be firing from Westerly to the Cape. Even the secret spots should see swell. Will have to check out Ruggles to see how big it gets, and who is surfing there. [video=youtube;KAx0iHGhT2c]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAx0iHGhT2c[/video]
" 6Z GFS shifted west again, Midway between Jamaica and Haiti Over eastern tip of Cuba on Midday Tuesday. spends about 36 hours over the Bahamas running up all the middle Bahama islands. Landfall Morehead City, NC late F1riday night. Then rapidly moves to a landfall Saturday afternoon. The storm remains a Major until after landfall in NC. HWRF is further east, and keeps it out to sea, GFDL brings it close to North Carolina before the run ends. Official track is east of the Euro & GFS, but still pretty close, I suspect the track may shift west again at 11AM, especially with the more westerly position recon found this morning.." Eastern Florida should keep watching this. There is an invest out there that could push the storm more west... Waves today were chunky waist to head highs, defying the SI forecast of 1.3' ...
I got out there this afternoon, it was really fun until the low tide got a hold of it....beer taste good right about now!!!! lol
Good job dog! " 12Z Euro with another odd initialization (it looks like the blob east of Matthew is confusing it), but clips Western Haiti Tuesday (maybe just east of the east tip of Cuba also) morning, then over the southeastern Bahamas rides up just east of the Bahamas Wed-Fri, Ridge builds over new jersey, offshore Georgia Saturday morning, moving nnw, as it approaches North Carolina it starts moving northeast then loops back to the ese. 12Z Ukmet does have Matthew over Cape Canaveral on Thursday, the only real model to show a direct Florida impact, but hasn't performed very well." Flhurricane.com
No kidding where's SI getting this forecast was waist to chest in Chuck on incoming tide a few head high ....suckers had some punch to them too
He turned straight N over night...will be curious to see the next modeling. Thinking mid-Atlantic could feal hurricane force....Florida first though. Yes, safe passage to Sis, Val, and Betty. Your up to bat first with this one
Nice to see the major models coming to an offshore track solution this morning. we need swell, not damage. Of course the islands....sadly another story.
NHC forecast track hasn't changed at the 11 am update. The factors in play are too complex to be reasonably certain beyond aboot 48 hours. Once Matthew has gone over Cuba I think we'll have a better fix on things. Personally, I won't be cancelling my Chinese food order until he is beyond 26N. After that it's time to paddle into mile long closeouts.
And then ther is this: " 12Z GFS : Trend West, stronger ridging Clips or just West of the tip of Haiti Tomorrow morning, Over eastern tip of Cuba late Tomorrow night. Rides up through the Bahamas Wed noon-Thursday night. Over Freeport, a good bit (100-120 miles) west of the earlier run. 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral Friday morning still moving nnw. Friday night offshore Charleston SE by about 100 miles, moving north. Landfall NC on Saturday morning near SC/NC border, rides just inland to the Outer Banks and exits back into the Atlantic moving ene near Nags Head, NC. Another landfall on Cape Code, Sunday midday, then one more in Maine Sunday night. The UKMET brings the system into Florida this run. Landfall near Melbourne, riding just inside the coast up to Jacksonville and continues into North Carolina "-- flhurricane.com
And that invest behind Matthew is heating up: "As of 2:00 pm EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 ... A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this low is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for development. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent"
Ha Ha, no. That would be well beyond my pay grade. I'm old(er) with limited skillz and know my limitations. I'll see what I can find down here. If not, I can just watch and marvel at the beauty of it all. Right now I'm more concerned aboot having my sh!t tossed.
I'd assume a place like Ruggles (or other famous, big) break now have the same problem that Everest has in that there are simply too many people wanting to go there when it's on. While obviously there will be plenty of other spots to go, not all of them are easily viewed from the boardwalk, etc... I see the footage of these Socal breaks where it looks like raft of seals floating out there and it looks like a frustrating nightmare, especially if you've been waiting for 3 years or whatever since the last truly epic sets came though.
