SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 Updated for reconnaissance information For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the small low pressure area approaching the Leeward Islands is poorly defined. In addition, the associated shower activity has decreased during the past few hours. The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force winds on the northeast side of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70
It's up to 80% chance now of forming a tropical system. Mid week swell likely. Get your excuses in order: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower activity associated with the small low pressure area approaching the Leeward Islands has changed little in organization during the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system again tomorrow afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."
MSW has it hitting NE with some good, clean chest at medium period on Sunday the 31st. Trying to plan a shindig that weekend and sending invites out tomorrow so is it safe to assume that if this happens at all that the best day won't hit NE until at least Sunday or is it possible that it would move faster than expected? No lie, I'll leave my full crib of peeps to go charge if it swells on the day of my fest but I'd rather not!
A MSW forecast (or any forecast) on a hopefully-soon-to-become tropical system that hasn't even organized yet and is still east of the Antilles....well, I wouldn't put too much stock in that one quite yet, both on size and timing. We'll see how much Hispaniola chews it up. GFS is garbage for intensity modeling but it's current track looks great for us up here (and would probably bring the swell around Saturday). Still pretty much meaningless until it passes Hispaniola, but we can hope. Let 'er rip Emass. No shame in Irish exiting your own party for some swell.
took a nap last night falling asleep with the weather channel on listening to sweet Jim Cantore's voice talking about nothing but 96L, dreamt about endless barrels.... the hype train is boarding now, please have your tickets in hand ready to be punch CUS ONCE YOU GET ON THERE'S NO TURNING BACK!!!
This f*cker could spin in our backyard for a long time if all goes well…its that time of year for sure!
Betty, this is twice in a row you have called it a week out. Time to start your own weather surf forecasting site!
Emass your mom is going out of town? Dude. Who from SI are you inviting to your rager? If you do have a few guys from the forum over there, you could shut down all rumors that you don't really have any of the stuff you post about. Like that Coil you got that you weren't quite sure who the shaper was. or the other 14 surfboards. Or 8 skateboards. I mean, I totally believe it all. And I don't think its weird that you didn't post pics of your quiver or new rigs. I mean, a lot of people don't know how to operate the camera function on their phone. Uploading can be tough too. Bro have a great time. Hope the swell comes up for you. Sunday day-time ragers were always my favorite. Maybe it will be really big so you can bust out the mini gun that biolos shaped up for you. Brew Kegs and Salty Kegs! Its going to be a Sunday to remember!
For a guy that claims to have put me on ignore, he's doing an awful lot of surveillance and continuing to interact. Maybe he saw my post quoted by another member, maybe his "little birds" told him bout it, maybe bro just needs a good party. We will never know. Hey seldom, looks like we could have a race to 4k posts but you'll probably get there first.
Yeah, she can call it DaBetty.com. Just don't use that goofy homemade slang lingo that DaBuh does. Hey sisurfdogg, you back in surfing shape for this potential swell event?
That is the $16,000 question. I have been swimming alot, and doing shoulder rehab exercises, and can probably hit it if it is clean and organized and I don't have to duck dive. If it is head high, I'll need a couple more weeks of rehab. It really makes me know how lucky I have been to have surfed my whole life. And to never take another wave for granted, no matter how small, crowded or mushy. It is a gift worth working for. Hopefully by Wednesday, we will all have some waves to talk story aboot. CHOOOO- CHOOO- ALL ABOARD!!!