Vigorous Wave coming off Africa

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by Betty, Aug 3, 2017.

  1. sheetglass

    sheetglass Well-Known Member

    May 12, 2008
  2. sheetglass

    sheetglass Well-Known Member

    May 12, 2008
    Current GFS path looks like Irene now that I think about it

  3. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
  4. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012

    Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
    #97802 - Fri Aug 04 2017 11:34 AM

    !2Z GFS starting to roll in, starts off weaker than the last run, but recovers at 24 hours. (Yesterday's 12Z run already had it as a Tropical storm right now, and obviously that didn't happen)

    By 48 hours, the position is about the same as the 6z run, but its a bit weaker. TD/tS vs hurricane.

    by 96 hours it moves faster and a bit further south of the earlier run, this appears to be closer to the Euro run, although it is a strong Tropical Storm at this point. This run seems more realistic toward actual conditions than the prior run.

    At 120 hours out it is much further southwest than the earlier run, and nearing the northern leeward islands, tropical storm strength.

    Near/over St. Johns and Barbuda in the Leewards on Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm then moves over/near St. Kitts, toward the Virgin Islands.

    Tropical Storm landfall on Puerto Rico Thursday night, then moves toward Hispaniola, by friday night it's over Haiti and getting torn apart. By Saturday morning the remains are over Guantanamo in Cuba.

    This is closer to the Euro run and much weaker (never gains hurricane strength) and stays weak.
  5. yankee

    yankee Well-Known Member

    Sep 26, 2008
    +1 to what Bettye said to Mitchell....exciting times for surfers!
  6. headhigh

    headhigh Well-Known Member

    Jul 17, 2009
    I just showed everyone in my office that onion slamming into the OBX. It's safe to say that they are all freaked the f out haha. Hope she bends out to sea a bit.
  7. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Ha! Surfer humor :)
  8. Zippy

    Zippy Well-Known Member

    Nov 16, 2007
    Oh crap, 3+ feet at 15 seconds from the ESE would be classic!
  9. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012
    Disturbance 1: 50% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
    As of 2:00 am EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 ...
    Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Cabo Verde Islands
    southwestward across the tropical Atlantic are associated with an
    elongated area of low pressure. This system remains poorly
    organized, but environmental conditions are expected to become a
    little more favorable for this system to consolidate, and a tropical
    depression could form early next week while it moves toward the
    west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
  10. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012

    18Z GFS back to something.

    Strenghtens to a TS around Monday/Tuesday in the Atlanta, weakens a bit as it gets closer to the Leewards, goes over Barbuda Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, barely misses Puerto Rico to the north on Friday, then stays just north of Hispaniola, Stays north of Cuba,

    Goes over the middle Florida Keys on Sunday August 13th as a major hurricane, ,rides just offshore of the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane. Landfall near Panama City, FL on August 14th, as a major hurricane, then up through Alabama/Georgia and Eastern Tennessee"
  11. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    that's a very scary path.Nobody needs that. Hope it keeps changing.
  12. Tlokein

    Tlokein Well-Known Member

    Oct 12, 2012
    Yeah, not a good sign, as with that current track even if it does turn north there a good chance it nails the east coast, and not in a good swell way.
  13. Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    Oct 14, 2012

    Overnight model runs show a much weaker system, GFS an Euro included, the Euro does not develop 99L at all, while the GFS does develop a tropical storm that crosses the leewards Wednesday Morning then weakens and eventually dissipates over Hispaniola. The NHC is slowly dropping chances for development based on the Euro's persistence in not developing the system.

    The storm's forward motion has been faster than earlier GFS model runs showed."

    This current outlook is less scary for sure.
  14. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

  15. sigmund

    sigmund Well-Known Member

    Dec 7, 2015
    My goal this tropical season is to not even look at the models. Nothing disappoints like tropical system fantasycasts.
  16. sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    Jun 17, 2013
    3 days out most of the major models usually come to an agreement, and it's fairly accurate. 5 days out it's almost a crap shoot. We are talking 7 to 10 days from now.
  17. BassMon2

    BassMon2 Well-Known Member

    Jan 27, 2015
    Yeah but it's fun to talk about and keep up on. With not much swell at least it gives you some kind of hope for somthing... eventually.
  18. sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    Jun 17, 2013
    Absolutely. My dreams get crushed almost daily, but yet I keep peeking at the next forecast. Clinging on to any sign of hope.
  19. Barry Cuda

    Barry Cuda Guest

    That is because you and Bassmon are self-inflicting painful masochists......
    I will know there is a hurricane out side when the pine trees are coming through my living room like torpedoes.....
  20. JohnnyCornstarch

    JohnnyCornstarch Well-Known Member

    Feb 24, 2015
    Seems like the past few summers have been pretty similar. Wait until fall for the one major cane while getting shot after shot of trade swell/ local events. Not trying to kill the hype but if we get a labor day cane like in the glory days I'll be shocked.