^ I could see it. That cmc2 model looks pretty lit. Let it stop out in the mid Atlantic and keep spinning.
Mitchell: Those waves looks dreamy. Trying super hard to not get too stoked yet, but you're making that difficult!! LBC: I just clicked the link. Fingers crossed that we all get some medicine and she stays far away from the coast. I'm putting a new blade on my chainsaw this week so that should keep it away from shore haha.
Flhurricane.com : "Euro is back to showing development of 99L, this time north of the Caribbean as a Tropical Storm in about 76 hours, and it moves generally west, keeps north of the Bahamas at 144 hours out and slowly starts to curve north by 168 hours out. No landfall, but cuts it close to the Outer Banks,. The 12Z GFS does not develop it."
Don't get your hopes up..."Development of this system is not expected during the next few days due to unfavorable environmental conditions", NHC quote
Not writing this one off quite yet. The forecast can jump back up just as quickly as it got downgraded. Remember on Friday when we were looking at a major hurricane?
Look like a gradual shift to the east, and the intensity models look good in 120 hours. Gert waves a comin' CHOO CHOO! The hype train has left the station (againne)
As of 2:00 pm EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 ... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is not expected during the next few days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, some development of this system is possible this weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Flhurricane.com: " Euro shows a developing storm off the east coast next week (Development starts around Saturday), but does not make landfall and recurves it out to sea. 6Z GFS does not develop 99L at all. "
"The NHC currently gives 99L a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days... The GFS, on the other hand, generates less convection, and maintains the upper low for longer, preventing development of 99L. It is not yet clear which model is correct about this interaction." I guess you're never wrong if you don't make a call. But odds are... Betty's right.
Disturbance 1: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours As of 8:00 am EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 ... Shower activity has increased a little this morning in association with a trough of low pressure located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, conditions are forecast to become somewhat conducive for development of this system late this week and this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
As of 2:00 pm EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 ... Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a trough of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has continued to increase slightly in organization since yesterday. While development should be slow to occur due to unfavorable environmental conditions, the environment is forecast to improve by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
