So... I've read some conflicting predictions on the upcoming 2012 hurricane season. some calling for a potentially more intense hurricane season due to the already warm waters the Atlantic, but most calling for a mild hurricane season. I would have guessed with the waters getting a head start on warming up this year that would lead to more hurricanes or possibly more intense hurricanes this year. any thoughts?
The water was comparably as warm, (at least to the south), last year and they hyped it up to be an epic hurricane season, granted Irene was a huge, powerful system....if we get what we got last year...a solid september and october I would be happy.
I'd like some wave producing systems a little earlier then what we go last year. lol. I think the first impactful hurricane (wave wise, not makeing landfall wise) was like mid/late august. But the summer of 2010 I think we had some action in july. the waters off NYC never really got below 45 degrees for any extended time.... which is warm up here.
I think atlantic hurricane activity is more affected by upper level winds and shear, and the La Nina than it is by water temps. The ocean temps where hurricane's form and intensify (south of 30 degrees N.) is pretty much always plenty warm enough (above 80) for the entire season. Even though the waters off the east coast are warmer than average, a lot of the models are predicting the La Nina (good for hurricane formation) to fade by summer.
Totally agree with the above statement, but hopefully we can count on these unusually warm waters to track the hurricanes more in our direction... so keep pissing in your wetsuits everybody.
Weak nina means more upper level wind shear across the basin and overall fewer storms. The water temps are yet to be determined but a weak nina and high temps usually means the storms that do emerge will be very powerful. I am anticipating a normal season this year with most of the activity from late august to early october.
great point, even though they start out in warm waters, the warm water in the north may help the storms keep their strength.
Always keep expectations low, but be prepared. All we can do is hope for the best.. last few years have sucked.
