This bears watching. Flhurricane.com: "GFS is showing a wave currently over africa developing in the Central Atlantic and going over the Leeward islands a hurricane on July 15-16, going west over Puerto Rico through most of the Bahamas then landfalling (as a hurricane) near Juipter, FL on the 20th. Parallel GFS, CMC and euro does not develop this. So this scenario is VERY unlikely right now. Very far out, but it means even after TD#4 comes and goes, there will likely be more to watch."
Suuuuuuuurrre!!!! Uh huh........ Ocean isn't ripe just yet, imho. Fruit are green, like green bananas (yuck). We need a big storm up here Betty. We haven't had one in a solid 3 years at least...and I mean a big one, not the namby pamby low pressure area waddling by at warp speed.
What about Hermine Barry? I think that was the one. Could be wrong. Granted we probably got it better here than you did. But we got some real solid surf. I actually don't even think it was a hurricane at that point. But it tracked really close.
So Jupiter, FL will be the last place this thing will go. 2 weeks out, no way will forecast stay the same. Now if it predicted 2 weeks from now it was headed to New Hampshah, I'd start to worry we'd get a landfall down here. I'm giving up surfing. Needlepoint, that's my next adventure.
Unremarkable up here, although I am sure all the New England surfers creamed their jeans if it gave them a 1-2 foot slop.
Flhurricane.com: " The new wave currently has multiple model support for strong development. 0z Euro starts to develop the wave currently over Africa in the Central Atlantic around July 12th, then it becomes a strong hurricane and goes through the Lesser Antilles July 16th (moving slowly as it crosses!) and ends the run July 17 as a major hurricane just east of the Virgin Islands. 0Z GFS starts to develop it moving west in the Central Atlantic on July 12th, has a major hurricane in the Lesser Antilles on July 15th, (slightly further south than the Euro) Gets disrupted by Hispaniola, and goes between Jamaica and Hispaniola on July 19th, then clips western Cuba and moves into the Gulf (weaker) GFS Para does not develop it. CMC develops it but loses it. "
Yep and they know it, but don't care because naming a specific Florida town as a landfalling hurricane site, two week out, drives traffic to their site. SO lame.
"A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave embedded within the Monsoon Trof, along with several linked small minimums of surface pressure (low pressure centers), has been looking interesting. In addition, a modest thunderstorm complex associated with this region of disturbed weather rolled off western Africa late last night, and is now showing signs of enhanced vorticity. This region is not yet Invest tagged, and as of the 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017 TWO, NHC had not yet made mention of it - even in the extended 5 Day. However, models in aggregate have been lukewarm on developing either a strong wave or tropical cyclone from this soup over the next seven days, with the prized GFS the most consistent, and bullish. " --flhurricane.com
Yeeeeeeew! Keep us updated betty! I know you will. My fingers are crossed. Been fun lately but small. Even a waist- chest high wave would be a delight. Looks like everyone else forgot to get tickets, but I'm on this hype train.
