That this swell forecast for Saturday will stay true? Is it gonna be another fader? I am hopeful but doubtful as of now. PS - this is not a complaint about the forecasting as I understand the procedures and think that this site does an excellent job.
I was just thinking the same thing... I bet we will see this change before the weekend... and a guess.. probably for the worse.
The forecast has been flip-flopping around for two days now, probably in response to the trajectory of Florence's remnants. I think we'll get some kind of bump this weekend, but dunno if it'll be Saturday or Sunday and whether the near-shore winds will be favorable for clean conditions.
Is this Florence's remnants, or is it just another windswell from an approaching cold front? That's what it looks more like to me... a low over the Ohio Valley slowly moving NNE over a couple days, with a trailing cold front creating some south windswell ahead of it.
frontal system, S/SW wind swell. Models look decent right now... Do you guys look at the wave maps? The wave maps are one of the first things I look at, to spatially visualize the storm systems, wind fetch, and waves heights.
idk if this is like illegal but Surfline Premium forecast is saying Saturday: Poor 2-3ft Sunday: Fair 3-4ft + These often change too as they are days 4 and 5, but take it for how you want. 2-3 ft on my beach usually means 3-4. 3-4ft + usually means 4-6ft.
you should realize that the Mid Atlantic region covers New Jersey through the Outer Banks, so keep that in mind when you are posted about upcoming swells at your location, that the forecasts for up and down the coast will vary.
The 5 day LOLA models break it down very detailed for every break on the coast for the most part. I use that when i'm trying to decide between two or three of my favorite spots. It might say 2-3ft for a region, but then you check the LOLA model for the exact break you surf, and it may be a bit smaller or larger depending on the swell.
The LOLA models favors the other beaches in cape may rather than the one I'm at even though basically every surfer flocks to my beach when the waves get big because its basically right near the inlet, which i don't think LOLA takes into consideration.
and btw, for you who are wondering. LOLA is predicting what looks to be a Category 3+ hurricane to slam right into Georgia around August 20th.
is this helping? http://i1240.photobucket.com/albums/gg500/apicariello/ScreenShot2012-08-08at10356PM.png
Also remember that this was yesterday's forecast which was inline with Swellinfo, however Surfline updates their forecast once a day and not until late afternoon typically.
but Surfline usually says "stay tuned" or something like that on the long range forecasts in the description. These say nothing of the sort just "better conditions" and "bigger peaks PM"
i know I'm beating a dead horse, but Surfline just UPPED the forecast for Saturday saying 3-4ft for New Jersey Poor to Fair Conditions
That site needs to change its ratings badly. 3 to 4 feet is NOT even close to poor for the east coast in summer. Are you kidding? The rating should be excellent assuming descent winds. That site has the same rating for cali as it does for the east coast.
what we may think is good doesnt compare to excellent in other places. they use the same conditions all across the board from hi to de, so what might be good for de really isn't that amazing in comparison to other places
Dude, the rating has to due with the quality of the wave, not the size of the wave. You can have 3-4 waves but completely blown out and worth a sh*t, and they call that POOR, or you can have 3-4 waves but the wind is just right, as the quality of the wave improves so does the rating. C'mon maaaaaaan.....
