What's up with the Forecast in FL?

Discussion in 'East Florida' started by Kyle, Jan 17, 2013.

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  1. Jan 17, 2013 #1
    Kyle

    Kyle Well-Known Member

    2,471
    Sep 9, 2011
    Forecaster,

    I am just curious what's going on with the models this week? Between Swellinfo, MSW, and the LOLA's on Surfline have said 2-4ft all week, today showing 2-3+ and Green conditions, but it's flat as a table out there?

    Not judging, know it's far from an exact science, but just noticed quite a big overcast this week, and I see a nice swell predicted this weekend, should I expect the same?

    Any info would be greatly appreciated, also, I surf Juno Pier and Jupiter Inlet mostly, any chance its the break?
     
    Kyle, Jan 17, 2013
    Kyle, Jan 17, 2013
  3. Jan 17, 2013 #2
    DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    17,845
    Mar 6, 2012
    Kyle you may want to consider driving North a bit. It looked pretty fun in North / Central FL yesterday.
     
    DawnPatrol321, Jan 17, 2013
    DawnPatrol321, Jan 17, 2013

  5. Jan 17, 2013 #3
    Kyle

    Kyle Well-Known Member

    2,471
    Sep 9, 2011
    Ugh, wish I could but work 9-5 so Monday thru Friday, I only have time for the dawn patrol or quick sunset session somewhere close by. But this weekend, I think I just may.
     
    Kyle, Jan 17, 2013
    Kyle, Jan 17, 2013
  6. Jan 17, 2013 #4
    DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    17,845
    Mar 6, 2012
    True that, same here, i'm looking at Sunday but we'll see how the wind shakes out...
     
    DawnPatrol321, Jan 17, 2013
    DawnPatrol321, Jan 17, 2013
  7. Jan 17, 2013 #5
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    Yeah looks big Saturday, may be too windy, but i will be out there no matter what. Looks like 6-8 foot sat, @5 Sunday.
     
    Betty, Jan 17, 2013
    Betty, Jan 17, 2013
  8. Jan 25, 2013 #6
    H2O'C

    H2O'C Well-Known Member

    179
    Sep 22, 2011
    Saturday morning is looking fun. Sunny and warm.
     
    H2O'C, Jan 25, 2013
    H2O'C, Jan 25, 2013
  9. Jan 25, 2013 #7
    DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    17,845
    Mar 6, 2012
    Yep, can't wait, going to be fun! Shooting over to PAFB probably
     
    DawnPatrol321, Jan 25, 2013
    DawnPatrol321, Jan 25, 2013
  10. Jan 25, 2013 #8
    Willis55

    Willis55 Well-Known Member

    78
    Dec 7, 2011
    I was wondering the same thing. Msw has 3.5 ft at 8 sec, Surfline (sucks) 1-2 ft and Swellinfo has 7 ft @ 13 sec for saturday morning. Thats a huge difference right? Don't get me wrong, I love a free forecast, but I think something is broken? I guess we will see when I'm at the beach tomorrow morning.
     
    Willis55, Jan 25, 2013
    Willis55, Jan 25, 2013
  11. Jan 25, 2013 #9
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    Am puzzled too. Makes a difference for me in terms of lugging the longboard if msw or Surfline are right or just bring the short board if SI is right. Will try looking at the live cam on Melbourne beach in a.m. For clues.
     
    Betty, Jan 25, 2013
    Betty, Jan 25, 2013
  12. Jan 25, 2013 #10
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    It looks like the Swellinfo model may be over calling this one comparing buoy data to model output, but it doesn't look flat to me. It looks like 2-4' range surf for a lot of areas.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2013
    Swellinfo, Jan 25, 2013
    Swellinfo, Jan 25, 2013
  13. Jan 25, 2013 #11
    Willis55

    Willis55 Well-Known Member

    78
    Dec 7, 2011
    Sounds like that could be fun, thanks for the clarification
     
    Willis55, Jan 25, 2013
    Willis55, Jan 25, 2013
  14. Jan 25, 2013 #12
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    Swellinfo, Jan 25, 2013
    Swellinfo, Jan 25, 2013
  15. Jan 25, 2013 #13
    Kyle

    Kyle Well-Known Member

    2,471
    Sep 9, 2011
    Thanks Admin, will do going forward!

    As for Surfline, they are showing a very similar forecast to you guys here...I'm quite curious how it's going to look at dawn, however the high tide worries me...
    Pier 1-26-13.jpg
     
    Kyle, Jan 25, 2013
    Kyle, Jan 25, 2013
  16. Jan 25, 2013 #14
    Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    5,504
    May 19, 2006
    FYI. I am looking further into this... This over call bias seems to be isolated to these strong NW wind scenarios from storms pushing off the coast. I think I may know how to resolve the bias in the long run, but its going to take some time to test and stuff...
     
    Swellinfo, Jan 25, 2013
    Swellinfo, Jan 25, 2013
  17. Jan 26, 2013 #15
    Kyle

    Kyle Well-Known Member

    2,471
    Sep 9, 2011
    Just got in from a dawn patrol session...2-3+ and super clean....

    A bit of an over call, but I'm not complaining, even snuck in some little barrels, fun stuff!
     
    Kyle, Jan 26, 2013
    Kyle, Jan 26, 2013
  18. Jan 26, 2013 #16
    H2O'C

    H2O'C Well-Known Member

    179
    Sep 22, 2011
    Same here at Jensen Beach.
     
    H2O'C, Jan 26, 2013
    H2O'C, Jan 26, 2013
  19. Jan 26, 2013 #17
    Betty

    Betty Well-Known Member

    2,018
    Oct 14, 2012
    2-4 foot ft pierce, 15 mph wind from NE, strong north current, did a lot of walking today.
     
    Betty, Jan 26, 2013
    Betty, Jan 26, 2013
  20. Jan 26, 2013 #18
    SaltyMountainsFLA

    SaltyMountainsFLA Member

    6
    Dec 13, 2012
    This is Florida..... you have to know this place better than you know how to wipe your ass because it could be breaking in Deerfield and flat in Juno. The swell direction, sandbar, tide, wind, and strength of the swell are all key factors when living in Florida so you have to take every little thing into consideration. If you wanna get good here stop surfing Juno pier and the Inlet. Go find your own spots where it'll be less crowded and more fun. Also, We NEVER see waves over 3 foot unless we're getting a serious low/high system, hurricane, or wind chop.
     
    SaltyMountainsFLA, Jan 26, 2013
    SaltyMountainsFLA, Jan 26, 2013
  21. Jan 27, 2013 #19
    Willis55

    Willis55 Well-Known Member

    78
    Dec 7, 2011
    Couples things here. My middle school english teacher encouraged NEVER to use the word never. With that being said its NEVER flat in juno and breaking in deerfield. We get it florida waves are fickle but easy on the misinformation. Get on it early, in florida I will promise winds will be lightest earlier in the day. So we never get waves over 3ft? Other than hurricanes, windchop, and lows? What other waves are there? Ones made by aliens spacecrafts? Please stay down in boca or wherever you live.

    P Found a fun waves somewhere in between "kyle" and "H20". About 3-5 and a good time!
     
    Willis55, Jan 27, 2013
    Willis55, Jan 27, 2013
  22. Jan 27, 2013 #20
    Kyle

    Kyle Well-Known Member

    2,471
    Sep 9, 2011
    Yeah, thanks for the summery of FL Surfing...I'm pretty sure we are all aware....I and I'd say 90% of us have "our" spots, I only bring up the pier cause it's a more consistent break around here.

    Also, I was referencing the over forecast, saying 4-6+ and was 2-3+ at best....and as far as only getting 3 feet or less, I beg to differ, might need to paddle a little more outside.

    And I didn't give any complaints about crowds or not getting any fun waves, just the overforecast....was just looking for a little insight as to why and i f it would be resolved.

    Sorry to rant, just can't stand some people that just pop in, don't address the actual "subject" of the post and give us all a lecture on what we are doing wrong and how to surf better. That is all.

    This is Florida....we know....surfing is fickle....but inaccurate models don't make it any easier...no matter how good your spot is....
     
    Kyle, Jan 27, 2013
    Kyle, Jan 27, 2013
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