Which is the best forecast site?

Discussion in 'All Discussions' started by sailquik, Jan 24, 2014.

  1. sailquik

    sailquik Well-Known Member

    213
    Nov 23, 2012
    So I get up before sunrise this morning for my usual Dawn Patrol and check the forecasts before heading out the door. I couldn't check the cam because it was still dark out, but I look at the buoy - which is 1/4 mile from my break. It is saying approx. 5.4ft significant and 8.2 maximum @10secs, but I don't completely trust it because it has been reading a little high (IMHO) since it's last maintenance.

    The forecasts are so different from each other that I don't know what to make of them... I usually check SI and SL, but today I looked at MSW as well because of all the hoopla, even tho' their closest break to me is an hour or so away.

    Here are the screen grabs from all three and a couple of pictures of the surf. Who do you think came closest to a correct forecast?

    Screenshot (13).jpg Screenshot (14).jpg Screenshot (15).jpg DSC_0003.jpg DSC_0002.jpg

    (IMO, MSW is an automatic fail for not having a forecast for my part of the coast, but I stuck it in there for shigs and tiggles)

    Disclaimer: I am NOT the guy in the speedo. I just took the photo to get a perspective of the wave size with someone on it!
     
  2. aka pumpmaster

    aka pumpmaster Well-Known Member

    Apr 30, 2008
    A few years ago i did a 30 day analysis of various forecasting sites (sadly I no longer have the data) but MSW was freaking laughable. SI and SL were very close with a small edge to SI. This was for NJ/DEL/MD only.
     

  3. SJerzSrfr

    SJerzSrfr Well-Known Member

    327
    Mar 2, 2010
    dont think i can judge it from two pictures. MSW sucked for so long that i dont even check it anymore and havent for several years. surfline has been overforecasting everything recently. SI has been pretty spot on. Im in Ocean City NJ.
     
  4. jizwhale

    jizwhale Well-Known Member

    Oct 8, 2011
    I wouldn't be here if SI didn't do the best job.
    I guess you had some fun today regaurdless.
     
  5. antoine

    antoine Well-Known Member

    Mar 10, 2013
    SI and Surf Guru my local choice anyway.
     
  6. hinmo24t

    hinmo24t Well-Known Member

    412
    Jan 16, 2012
    From my analysis between msw nesurf and si I find this one to be the most accurate. Most my surf buddies use msw though lol.
     
  7. MFCondor

    MFCondor Well-Known Member

    426
    Nov 30, 2013
    The guy in the pic has awesome shorts. As for accuracy, I use both SI and surf line
     
  8. Sandblasters

    Sandblasters Well-Known Member

    May 4, 2013
    dude i always see mwd as the worst they under predict everything. si and surfline are usually pretty close to each other.
     
  9. RIsurfer

    RIsurfer Well-Known Member

    997
    Dec 5, 2012
    Only SI, everything else really only focuses on the most popular spots in the region.
     
  10. NICAfiend

    NICAfiend Well-Known Member

    534
    May 12, 2012
    Buoyweather is the one I trust most. This site is pretty accurate, not a big fan of Surfline and MSW has it's days. I generally look at them all and take the sum of what they say. Looking out the window beats them all though. If you can't do that check the cams.
     
  11. brek

    brek Well-Known Member

    430
    Jun 17, 2008
    I almost always compare all 3 forecasts for every swell. The swell forecasts are usually - but not always - pretty similar, but MSW absolutely blows at translating that swell to wave height at local breaks. An example would be a 7ft @ 6s SSW swell translating to a forecasted wave height of 5-6 feet in DE.

    I suspect SI and SL largely generate their forecasts with data provided by NOAA, while MSW might be pulling it from ECMWF. You'd think that would make it more accurate, but again, I think it's just the total lack of local knowledge that makes their forecasts here fall apart. I also think SL, being based on the west coast, doesn't do very well forecasting the shorter period wind swell we get here.

    tl;dr swellinfo is the best.
     
  12. jizwhale

    jizwhale Well-Known Member

    Oct 8, 2011
    So you see the future out your window? Can I get in on that?
     
  13. NICAfiend

    NICAfiend Well-Known Member

    534
    May 12, 2012
    I can see the future of what my day is going to hold. Is it starting to clear up, is there a storm rolling through, which way is that tree blowing, etc.....

    thanks 002.jpg
     
  14. TunerFish

    TunerFish Member

    14
    Jan 23, 2014
    NEsurf.com is ok if your north off Cape Cod
     
  15. MFCondor

    MFCondor Well-Known Member

    426
    Nov 30, 2013
    Thats a great view!
     
  16. Mr.Belmar

    Mr.Belmar Well-Known Member

    Aug 19, 2010
    I just check it at my local break- Belmar,NJ

    #itsalwaysheadhiinbelmar
     
  17. sailquik

    sailquik Well-Known Member

    213
    Nov 23, 2012
    Yep, so much so that I haven't had a chance to post : Five days of surf and finally had to take today off because I was starting to get tired.

    24th - Hadn't surfed in a week. Head high, windy and messy so went to the kiddie break where it's wind protected and was waist to chest.
    25th - Wind coming down but couple feet overhead and messy. Back to kiddie break.
    26th - Back to my usual spot. Head high and crowded (Sunday. 20-25 people.). Semi bumpy but oh so nice! Rights not lining up but some quick fast lefts. I'm goofy so it's all good.
    27th - Maybe a foot overhead and only six guys out. Super fun.
    28th - A little smaller with set waves around head high, a little longer between sets, but lining up beautifully and consistently. Three different peaks lining up into one long awesome right with a four to five minute paddle back.
    29th - (Today) Much smaller - maybe chest high? Windy. Tired. Drove by before daybreak, thought about paddling out, watched some guys get some, went home.

    As for the forecast? I think SL may have been the most accurate, consistently calling for 4-6 ft (shoulder high to 1ft overhead), but SI was close enough and free! No one got the wind right this week. The wind forecasts are correct for the afternoon, but they were always wrong in the morning.

    Sorry about the long, pseudo journal entry, but man it's been a fun week and I figure with all the Belmar hashtags, I should talk up my warm, clear, water.
     
  18. sailquik

    sailquik Well-Known Member

    213
    Nov 23, 2012
    I had a chance to talk to him in the lineup the next day. Nice guy. He came here from HI for a longboard competition last weekend and won the 60+ age group. The pic doesn't show it, but he was walking up and down and hanging off the nose nicely. 62 years old and going strong. I was tired after three hours and left - he kept going and was there again the next day and the next. Told me he's been surfing for forty years. I only hope I have that stamina at that age. Maybe a speedo would provide some kind of aerodynamic benefit that will improve my surfing?
     
  19. MFCondor

    MFCondor Well-Known Member

    426
    Nov 30, 2013
    A speedo will reduce fatigue when cutting back in the pocket. High speed, low drag.
     
  20. Surfin_nj

    Surfin_nj Well-Known Member

    155
    Jan 4, 2014
    swellinfo and surfline look pretty close but msw is definitely off. I dont even look at msw anymore