with Hurricane season around the corner...

Discussion in 'Northeast' started by suzyq, Jun 4, 2013.

  1. suzyq

    suzyq Active Member

    25
    Jan 7, 2013
  2. LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2009
    I'm thinking New Jersey's had two years with back-to-back hurricanes - Irene and Sandy - and this year could make it three in a row.

    Yes... Sandy was a 100 Year Storm. It was an unprecedented confluence of events never seen before. That makes it rather significant, don't you think?
     

  3. ewwoodsurf

    ewwoodsurf Well-Known Member

    65
    Oct 23, 2007
    I think on Wall Street, they would think of Sandy as a "new high," ....or maybe a "new low...."
     
  4. suzyq

    suzyq Active Member

    25
    Jan 7, 2013
    i agree, LBcrew
    ocean and bay had not met in a long while, which furthered the damage.i think forecasters are going to be alot more cautious when predicting severity and landfall, expect the worst hope for the best kinda deal..
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  5. Swellinfo

    Swellinfo Administrator

    May 19, 2006
    A 100 year storm, means, probability of occurring is once every 100 years.
    We've seen a lot of tremendously damaging storms over the recent past... I dont think it should ever be off the radar.
     
  6. SkegLegs

    SkegLegs Well-Known Member

    513
    Feb 8, 2009
    The storm probability is based purely on the rainfall amounts in a set 24 hour period. For Delaware Sandy maxed out at 10 total inches of rainfall .... but this was over a 4 day period. The max 24 hour rainfall was only 4 inches. This correlates to a 5-YR storm for Sussex County. Again this doesn't mean once every 5 years .... you could have 10 back to back to back 100 year storms. 5 yr storm just means that for every time it storms, there is a 20% chance of this event or greater occurring in rainfall amounts.

    That doesn't mean the new isn't going to butcher the term and call it the 100 year storm of the century. Winds and damage are completely unrelated.
     
  7. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    It wasn't a 100 year storm, it was impressive for a Cat 1, but not a 100 year storm. Let's not forget all the devastated areas in recent memory. Just to name a few, Florida had Andrew (Cat 5) in 1992, one of if not the most devastating in history, then in 2004 there were 3 back to back to back Charley (Cat 4, strongest since Andrew), Frances (Cat 4), and Jeanne (Cat 3). and Wilma (Cat 3) in 2005, and Ike (Cat 2) in 2008. Then there was Katrina (Cat 3) in 2005, the costliest hurricane in US history, i'm still very thankful it missed my area, sadly most of the damage was in LA / MS. I even left off several that still rank up there in terms of damage, but these stuck out in my mind. It's really something we've gotten use to around here.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  8. Mitchell

    Mitchell Well-Known Member

    Jan 5, 2009
    Dawn Patrol SUP - you cant compare the Mid Atlantic and Northeast to Florida. Florida gets direct hits MUCH more frequently. The same storm could be a 10 -year event for Florida and a 150 year event for Maine.

    Skeglegs - for coastal storms, the 100-year flood levels are based on tide gauge levels not rainfall rates like a river flood model.

    Sandy's wind speeds were lower than a 100-year return frequency at landfall in the areas impacted.

    Sandy's rainfall amounts were lower than a 100-year level in the areas impacted.

    Sandy's coastal flood heights were ABOVE 100-year levels in certral New Jersey to New York because the storm had such a large circulation (as it was transitioning to an extratropica cyclone) it pushed a larger storm surge than a more typical smaller category 1 hurricane.

    FEMA is actually updating their 100-year floodplain maps and increasing their 100-year flood elevations for New Jersey and New York (and has already issued increased "advisory" flood elevations in these areas) because Sandy exceeded the 100-year flood levels from the previous studies which dated to the 1980s.

    Predicting 100-year flood levels is pretty difficult when we have far less than 100 years of historical tide gauge data. Once the Sandy flood level is added to the historical record, it increases the flood level prediction, which unfortunately means that in many areas that havent taken a major hit lately, the
    predicted 100-year flood levels are likely on the low side.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  9. SkegLegs

    SkegLegs Well-Known Member

    513
    Feb 8, 2009
    So when Bohdie surfed the 100 year storm at Bells it probably sucked, because the tide was so high the waves were not drawing off the reef correctly Mitchell?
     
  10. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    I agree with you, you can't compare them because we get it WAAAAY worse... maybe that's my point? Calling it a 100 year storm only applies to the NE, but in terms of storms in general, it's low on the list.
     
  11. LBCrew

    LBCrew Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2009
    Yea... so as far as probability goes, your talking a phenomenon that's location-dependent. I'm sure that there's less than a 1% chance of another storm that...

    1) sets a record for lowest pressure of any Atlantic storm north of Hattaras
    2) sets a record for highest wave in New Jersey/New York waters
    3) sets a record for highest storm surge in the New Jersey/New York area
    4) creates a storm that's the second largest in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded

    Maybe it's a 500 year storm?
     
  12. njsurfer42

    njsurfer42 Well-Known Member

    Nov 9, 2009
    the tone of this post strikes me as a bit disrespectful/insensitive to those who had to live through Sandy & whose lives are still in upheaval b/c of it. esp. given your location is listed as "lava land", presumably meaning hawaii or some other area w/ significant vulcanism (ie: not the northeast US).
    yes, Sandy was hyped beyond hype, but the impact that storm had is still being felt, & will be felt, for months or years to come. don't be a prick.
     
  13. Paddington Jetty Bear

    Paddington Jetty Bear Well-Known Member

    Apr 23, 2013
    Ahh man, you SOB. When I got on this thread, I was just thinking aboot Bodhi, and you stole my thunder. You rapscallion !! However it was THE FIFTY YEAR STORM that hit Bells........

    Now, some people say things like, " Aww Point Break was a terrible surf movie." Well, that's because it's NOT a surf movie. I wonder if FBI guys are saying, " Aww man Point Break was a terrible FBI movie....they got everything wrong." I mean I love the guy to death, but do you really think Gary Busey could be an FBI agent?

    But, look how prophetic The Bodhisattva, aka Bodhi, was. Jersey's last major, major brush with mother nature occured on The ASH WEDNESDAY STORM of 1962. Subtract 1962 from 2012 and y'all get.....................

    Right, FIFTY FRIGGIN YEARS. Wow, uncanny. Holy Mackrel vagina. Now, this lends creedence, or at least Creedence Clearwater Revival, to the significant aspect and prognostication powers of the movie Point Break.

    And Jersey will get hit again by at least a Tropical Storm this year. This was solidified by NJ's new marketing campaign of, "STRONGER THAN THE STORM." Man, you just don't taunt the ocean. Hey anybody see the commercvial with all the shred hounds paddling out? Were any of them any of youse guys on here?
     
  14. EmassSpicoli

    EmassSpicoli Well-Known Member

    Apr 16, 2013
    Point Break is about to be remade. By the time of it's theatrical release the remake will be 23 years after the original. 23.

    Now I've got to go run the equivalent of 8-10 laps on an intermittently uphill track. That is, since my previously atsronomical caloric expenditure of the winter/spring is now without its means, and I do like how it feels when these pants fall down.

    NOTE: That really means 8-10 laps and not 2-3. Honestly.
     
  15. KillaKiel

    KillaKiel Well-Known Member

    837
    Feb 21, 2012
    Sandy caused a good deal of damage to the OBX. They get their share of hurricanes too. I believe only Key West has seen more in the last 100 years.