Oh. Then no I fished. I didn't' catch. The bait and birds were there but no hits. 30 bucks and you can get a spinning rod reel combo with line. Buy an atoms popper. Its a lure. All you need this time of year. And luck. Find the birds diving. Cast out as close as you can. Reel 2 turns and pull. Repeat until you're reeled in. Cast again. You're fishing.
Exactly bro. Well said. This tread went on and on and on and we go on and on and on (it's a song brahs) because young Wick needs an app to wipe his arse on the auto. The rest of us sounded like we stuttered when we repeated our point. See Wick? You didn't GET THE POINT in this tread or in this swell. Get to the point next time bro. Points are good on longer period.
Thanks man. I will check it out. I've been surfing way more than working, so that's in my price range. My uncle in Bayshore used to be a huge hunter/surfcaster, I might be able to score some gear/knowledge off of him. I've never caught a striper, but I have eaten them, and my understanding is that you can get enough fish to fill the freezer for the winter. There's no feeling like catching your own dinner. I've heard that the bridge just before the eastern-most inlet is a great place to drop line for Stripers, when the time is right.
Anytime. In hindsight I might be dating myself with the 30 dollar combo. Probably a little more these days.
I don't understand all the hostility toward Wick. It's one thing to disagree with him. And it's good to defend SI as a valuable, free service. What I don't understand is spending literally hours during a swell on a web forum attacking him on a personal level. It's just not that big a deal. If anything, you should be happy when others get it wrong, it's more waves for you.
For the past two weeks or so I've run into no bass, but have been hooking into lots of blues in the 2lb range, and one day got into a bunch of weakfish. Pretty cool catching them in the surf.
The point is this: On Tue, OH was predicted at The Wall for Wed PM, reality was less than WH on Wed, HH was predicted for The Wall Thur AM, reality was WH These are predictions 12-16 hours in the future, they were not forecasts 2 or 3 days away. The point is not: 1) there was better surf someplace else 2) you are an idiot if you surf at The Wall 3) you are ruining surfing by pointing out that the forecast was inaccurate. 4) the predictions in other breaks was perfect The buoy prediction turned out to be accurate? ok, great, but we don't surf at the buoy. The shore prediction at The Wall was way off. Not a small bit, way off. What was unique about those days that resulted in the buoy prediction being right, but the shore so wrong? Hurricanes are hard to predict? ok, fine, agreed, but doesn't the modeling factor that in? By any standard those are reasonable questions to ask. now, responses of "quite your whining, forecasting is tough stuff to do right", or "if you don't like the service don't use it" are fine, I have no problem with that at all, I thought nynj response on page 1 was great, fair enough. Some of these other responses? dudes need to chill out.
Hey dude, I think something other people might be pointing out is that there is no forecast listed for "The Wall" here, just for the general area, and that it might have been better at other locations in the general area. But I could be wrong about this, because I don't have access to the Swellinfo Premium Forecast, maybe you do and maybe the Premium app has a forecast for "The Wall."
I dunno my dude. Before we lock up this thread, I wanted to give you my .02. I am not from there, nor have a surfed there, but after looking at the location of your spot, I have a theory. The storm was FAR offshore and directly between your beach and the Edouard storm way out at sea is Cape Code and the point off of MA. That point was probably directly blocking the first portion of that swell, as if was coming from a bad angle. The swell took longer to fill in everywhere. It was delayed a few hours from Florida to Maine. So, by the time the swell and fetch cleared the point at Cape Cod, it was probably about sun down in NH. Thursday AM was low tide. Not sure how low it was for you guys, but it was low up and down the whole coast. That is why thursday AM sucked.... Just a freak accident. You happen to live in a specific nook/cranny on the coast line, where a lot of swell angles are blocked. Buoys can be tricky for a place like that, because the location of the Buoy is probably not indicative of where you are located, or the angle in which the swell is coming from. Meaning, you are looking at BUOY 44030. It is semi open ocean, but there is blockage from cape cod. So by the time that buoy jumps up and shows swell, you are probably about 2-3 hours behind actually seeing that at your beach. And I say that ONLY because of this past swell. It was far offshore, coming up from south to North..... And again, the tide killed you on Thursday. Not saying my opinion state above is fact, but based on a quick glance at your location, where you were surfing and how this swell was acting, you were just simply a victim of poor timing, by the swell, the tide and the buoy. It happens. You just live in a place where you can score Epic conditions, but if there is too much south in the swell or the track is wrong, you aren't going to get nada. Too Long... Part 2.
Part 2 That said, you had a larger swell window based on how far off shore that storm really was. I would assume most hurricanes pass much closer to the close, further delaying the swell fetch getting around that dreaded point in MA. So, unless you are getting that NE winter juice, I would assume that it is common place to get skunked on these tropical swells if your timing isnt perfect.... Just food for thought. Factor those things in next time, because the computers will NOT do things like that. So, my advice, next time you are tracking a cane swell, look at wunderground or on here at the track. Draw a straight line from your beach, right across the corner of Cape Cod and out to sea. Where ever that line intersect with the Storm track is when you should start seeing the swell.... I think in the near future, Micah should consider factoring in tides to the forecasts, which will REALLY dial in when or when not to go, but that is just asking for trouble. More people complaining because the more accurate you try and become, the more tiny mistakes can happen. But for my region, a simple algorithm could be installed at it would show you exactly what the deal is. Like IF ($tide = rising && $tide >= $maxtide -3) THEN $Swellheight = $Swellheight *** If the tide is rising its between 3 feet of high tide, then the swell forecast and buoy data will be true IF ($TIDE = rising $$ tide <= $maxtide -3 && >= $lowtide +3) THEN $Swellheight = ($Swellheight /2) *** If the tide is rising, but its between in between 3 hours to high or low tide, then the actual swell height prediction should be cut in half. At mid tides, things are working, but barely. So cutting the prediction in half is about right. IF ($TIDEHEIGHT < 3) THEN ($SWELLHEIGHT = $SWELLHEIGHT /4) **** If the tide is less than 3 feet, rising or falling, take the predicted wave heights and cut it in 1/4 and that is the actual wave height IF $TIDEHEIGHT < 2) THEN $SWELLHEIGHT = 0 && FLAT If its less than 2 feet, EVER, regardless of the buoy data. It will read flat.... Now, $swellheight is not buoy data. $swellheight would have already been filtered by period, size, direction, wind etc and $swellheight in this case means actual predicted wave heights after filtering them.,.... That is an example. But if Micah were to slap that logic on SC and GA, it would litterally show you the TRUE wave height predictions. Everything on SI, surfline and EVERYWHERE does not include tidal factors into its A.I. Just a thought. Not a hard bit of code to implement, the HARD part is gathering data, probably from users about how EXACT coastlines react to tidal and swell events. The code above is for HILTON HEAD, which is completely tide dependent. The same logic could be used in Delmarva or anywhere, but the thresholds in which these numbers change is completely different. So, with a little local knowledge, this can be done. Just a matter if Micah wants to open a big ass can or worms or not.
were you there? i'm talking nyav...i also looked at 8thst ocnj THAT AFTERNOON and have never ever seen it better.
Apology accepted. At first you had me wondering if you were related to Shark Farter. Great dissertation zach619, on the effects of tides, rising v. falling, low v. mid v. high, with lots of nuance. I think stuff like that is best classified as local knowledge, and thus having been earned through putting the time in and being observant, and being able to recall historic patterns, this is the hard earned currency of being a local to a certain area. I personally would rather it stay that way, as I think the fact that we have surf cameras, twitter, instapic, etc, gives most people who have a bit of a clue all the tools they need. It is the just reward of the local, to drive by a good well known spot that is firing, seeing the crowds hassle for the peak set waves, then go up the beach 3-4 miles, to a tide dependant reef/sandbar combo, and catch long empty waves with only a handful of people out. Why make it easier for the masses?
Exactly. Although the artificial intelligence side of programming size and conditional decisions based on the tide and swell is easy enough to install into the current forecast models.To this point, I have not publicly released any of the forecast or reporting models with tidal decisions in them, I have played around with it in .php. Very easy to do. The question is, do we want to? If Micah did this, swellinfo would be hailed as a ground breaking reporting engine that is really doing something that no other engine/site does. However, this will further clog the lineup, give away vital, local secrets and knowledge and really letting the cat out of the bag. However, it would alleviate about 9 out of 10 questions in this forum about why the surf did what it does and when it will be good. Its a double edge sword. These things are growing, changing codes that can be made better, but at what cost? I learned a lot on certain flaws in my reporting/forecasting code for Hilton Head, because I took the code from what I wrote in CA and flipped every degree 180 degrees, so all the data is facing the right way. Onshore is now offshore etc..... I also changed a ton of the variables to determine actual wave size. In a nut shell, 4ft@10 seconds is completely different here than it was in CA. So, I spent months fixing all that code. Only every once in a while does a big swell test some of the higher variable levels that you don't get to see in real time until the conditions arise. Anyway, what I am trying to say is that one set of variables that I never changed over here were the swell period level logics. After 10-11 seconds, my "Robot Script" believes that it should treat the effects of increased swell period up to 23 seconds the same way it does in CA. I have to now sift through all the decisions within the script that fall into a swell period any higher than 11. I.E. a 14 second swell hear should be treated as a 25 second swell on the west coast. But, that said, that is only in power, and "closeout effects" which actually display as part of the output. Yes, my script tells you if it will be closing out based on this data. Sometimes, a weird variable can make things off a bit, but its pretty much the law. And this information was brought to my attention, last week, leading up to the 15 second swell. We all discussed it and it was pretty much unanimous that it makes things difficult. So, thank you SI crew, because had we not talked about this, I would have never thought to dig that deep into the code again. So, sorry to get all nerdy, but this stuff does interest me as a hobby. And I will leave it at this. We, or Micah or whomever can take this stuff to a whole new level, but I am not sure any of us are willing to risk to possible result of it.
Nice stuff bro! The changing factor of swell period on east v. west coast is the continental slope hear, and the lack of one there. So the wave feels the bottom way farther out here, especially as the swell period increases. I didn't know this stuff until aboot 10 years ago when a buddy of mine who lives in Maui splained me.
