Worst forecast ever?

Discussion in 'Northeast' started by Wick, Sep 18, 2014.

  1. Slashdog

    Slashdog Well-Known Member

    May 22, 2012
    A large fetch (with high windspeeds of course), windspeed, and duration are all crucial to swell development. We know that Edouard had the windspeed and duration. Was the fetch really smaller than other, similar 'canes? Or smaller than expected? I believe that's something we can measure relatively easily, though I'm not sure how it's factored into the forecast models.

    According to NOAA; "Large waves occur only when all three factors combine" (Duxbury, et al, 2002.) Wouldn't the storms distance or path be more of a factor?
     
  2. sbx

    sbx Well-Known Member

    977
    Mar 21, 2010
    Exactly. Ideally we want storms west of 65 degrees, I don't think this ever even crossed 60. I think the swell was pretty impressive for a storm just hanging out in the middle of the Atlantic.
     

  3. EmassSpicoli

    EmassSpicoli Well-Known Member

    Apr 16, 2013
    Dis tread's getting real! Keep the discussion rolling bros. It's enlightening. Slashdog has always been an intelligent lad. However, he apparently ingested some Limitless drugs.
     
  4. sisurfdogg

    sisurfdogg Well-Known Member

    Jun 17, 2013
    This had speed and duration, but the fetch was in constant flux. It never stalled and set up a constant angle of fetch pointed at any one particular direction for any length of time long enough for a good size swell to develop and hit our coast (or yours). I just talked to a bud who went out to ****** in the Bahamas and caught it good. Well overhead and barreling on shallow coral heads. Bastards!
     
  5. punkaboy

    punkaboy Well-Known Member

    83
    Sep 9, 2012
  6. EmassSpicoli

    EmassSpicoli Well-Known Member

    Apr 16, 2013
  7. DawnPatrol321

    DawnPatrol321 Well-Known Member

    Mar 6, 2012
    Was still chest to head yesterday where I was, maybe a few a tad larger, a nice low pushed off the coast, still in the chest plus range today and probably into tomorrow, no complaints here.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2014