Dr Philip J Klotzback and Dr William Gray from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project have posted their latest outlook into the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The forecast projects a well above average number of storms for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Below is their forecast. 1950-2000 averages are (in parenthesis).
Named Storms - 16 (9.6)
Named Storm Days - 85 (49.1)
Hurricanes - 9 (5.9)
Hurricane Days - 40 (24.5)
Major Hurricanes - 5 (2.3)
Major Hurricane Days - 10 (5.0)
Probabilities for at least one major hurricane (cat 3+) for the following areas. Average for last century (in parenthesis):
Entire US Coastline - 72% (52%)
US East Coast Including Florida Peninsula - 48% (31%)
Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, TX - 47% (30%)
Major Hurricane tracking into the Caribbean - 61% (42%)
The forecast is based on a new extended range early April statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data. A major factor for the above average prediction is based on the strong La Nina pattern seen during the winter months. Click here to view the full public release. Updates by the Colorado State forecast team will be made on June 1st and August 3rd.
As surfers, an above average hurricane season sounds exciting. But, lets not forget the destruction that these storms can create - Katrina, Ike, Wilma to name a few. Lets hope for another fantastic hurricane season, like 2010, where the tropical swells were pumping and the storms stayed mostly away from the coast!