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TS Karen Update

Posted: Friday Sep 28, 2007     By: Swellinfo     Category: Forecast

Karen still chugging along in the eastern tropics

Tropical Storm Karen is currently located approximately 750 miles east of the Windward Islands. Over Karen's 3 day lifespan, she has been moving steadily on a WNW track. At one point, Karen was close to Hurricane status (74mph), but has recently been deteriorated due to westerly wind shear from an approaching trough. As of the Friday 5am(ET) status Karen has maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

The forecast calls for strong wind shear to continue to influence Karen over the next 48 hours, and the NHC forecasts Karen to be a minimal tropical storm (35kt) through that period. If Karen is to survive the next 48 hours, she then has the potential to re-strengthen as the wind shear is anticipated to decrease. Karen then looks to stear more westerly, which would be more ideal for East Coast swell production.

So are we going to see any swell from Karen? While Karen is in the East Coast swell window, she is still very far from the East Coast. From the storm's short history, there will likely be some small SE/ESE ground swells produced that reach the East Coast during the beginning of next week. These will be minor and go unnoticed for most locations as a frontal system off the coast looks to provide a strong local wind swell event thats masks the small Karen swells (and provide some much needed surf relief for many areas).

Karen still has the potential to be an East Coast swell provider if she can survive the next 48 hours of wind shear and re-strengthen as she moves closer to the East Coast. We will keep you updated on Karen in the Swellinfo News section and provide any other significant updates on the tropics.